Mercados de Predicción de Oriente Medio

Los mercados de predicción de Oriente Medio ponen precio a las grandes preguntas de la región - altos el fuego, sanciones, negociaciones nucleares, elecciones y conflicto - como probabilidades vivas que cambian con cada titular. Polymarkets sigue los precios reales de los mercados de Israel, Irán, Gaza y el Golfo, y te deja practicar sin riesgo en el modo entrenamiento antes de operar en Polymarket.

80 mercados activos
Irán Gaza Israel Rehenes Irán-Israel Israel-Hezbolá Israel-Hamás Yemen Acuerdo Nuclear
Ordenar
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SíNo
August 25August 2599%SíNo
$2,5 M Vol 30/09
¿Se firmará el acuerdo nuclear final entre EE. UU. e Irán para...?¿Se firmará el acuerdo nuclear final entre EE. UU. e Irán para...?
31 de diciembre12%SíNo
November 307%SíNo
$16,2 M Vol 01/01
¿Invadirá EE. UU. Irán antes de 2027? ¿Invadirá EE. UU. Irán antes de 2027?
17%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$84,6 mil Vol 31/12
¿Quién será el próximo Primer Ministro de Israel después de las próximas elecciones?¿Quién será el próximo Primer Ministro de Israel después de las próximas elecciones?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%SíNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%SíNo
$33 M Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
September 3039%SíNo
September 1518%SíNo
$40,5 mil Vol 30/09
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027? ¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$79,4 mil Vol 31/12
¿Cambia el líder de Irán para finales de 2026?¿Cambia el líder de Irán para finales de 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei82%SíNo
Sin Jefe de Estado4%SíNo
$38,8 M Vol 31/12
¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre? ¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre?
14%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$22,4 mil Vol 31/12
USD x Iranian rials End of August?USD x Iranian rials End of August?
2.0-2.1M46%SíNo
2.1-2.2M34%SíNo
$20,6 mil Vol 31/08
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%SíNo
October 3113%SíNo
$6,8 M Vol 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
September 3094%SíNo
August 3177%SíNo
$21,9 mil Vol 30/09
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$108 mil Vol 01/10
¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3149%SíNo
May 311%SíNo
$6 mil Vol 01/01
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3033%SíNo
September 1516%SíNo
$5 mil Vol 30/09
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 2478%SíNo
August 1776%SíNo
$21,9 mil Vol 31/08
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Arabia SauditaArabia Saudita10%SíNo
VenezuelaVenezuela10%SíNo
$4,2 mil Vol 31/12
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 225%
August 3130%
$3,5 mil Vol 31/08
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%SíNo
September 307%SíNo
$2,3 mil Vol 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,7 mil Vol 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%SíNo
513%SíNo
$1,7 mil Vol 31/12
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?
↑ 2.0M97%SíNo
↑ 2.1M58%SíNo
$1,6 mil Vol 31/08
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 311%
$1 M Vol 01/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,7 mil Vol 31/08
Will Iran target Bahrain by...?Will Iran target Bahrain by...?
August 3140%SíNo
September 3035%SíNo
$1,2 mil Vol 30/09
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
September 3050%SíNo
September 1520%SíNo
$1,1 mil Vol 30/09
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?
September 1551%SíNo
September 3051%SíNo
$957 Vol 30/09
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
21%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$30,3 mil Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%SíNo
June 263%SíNo
$1,6 M Vol 01/09
Will Iran target Syria by...?Will Iran target Syria by...?
September 157%SíNo
September 307%SíNo
$674 Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Iraq by...?Will Iran target Iraq by...?
September 3040%SíNo
September 1534%SíNo
$647 Vol 30/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,7 mil Vol 31/12
¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de septiembre? ¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de septiembre?
4%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$22,4 mil Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Kuwait by...?Will Iran target Kuwait by...?
September 3032%SíNo
September 1520%SíNo
$379 Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Qatar by...?Will Iran target Qatar by...?
September 30September 3023%SíNo
September 15September 1511%SíNo
$356 Vol 30/09
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%SíNo
March 311%SíNo
$294 Vol 01/01
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$344,6 mil Vol 31/12
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
8%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$160,8 mil Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$174,3 mil Vol 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%SíNo
August 311%SíNo
$1,7 M Vol 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$146 Vol 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%SíNo
Lebanon9%SíNo
$143 Vol 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
10%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$73 Vol 31/12
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
December 31, 202550%SíNo
December 31, 202629%SíNo
$456,4 mil Vol 01/01
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SíNo
December 3150%SíNo
$2,9 M Vol 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%SíNo
August 311%SíNo
$1,2 M Vol
¿Irán aceptará entregar su stock de uranio enriquecido para...?¿Irán aceptará entregar su stock de uranio enriquecido para...?
31 de diciembre8%SíNo
31 de octubre3%SíNo
$17,8 M Vol 01/01
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$55 Vol 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20268%SíNo
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%SíNo
$533,3 mil Vol 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%SíNo
May 312%SíNo
$341,6 mil Vol 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$194,2 mil Vol 31/12
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$100,5 mil Vol 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%SíNo
December 3150%SíNo
$4,1 M Vol 01/01
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%SíNo
August 311%SíNo
$137,3 mil Vol 31/08
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%SíNo
July 312%SíNo
$100,7 mil Vol 31/08
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$158,4 mil Vol 31/12
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$15 Vol 31/12
Iran Nuke before 2027? Iran Nuke before 2027?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$13 Vol 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 M Vol 01/01
¿Masoud Pezeshkian fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Masoud Pezeshkian fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3115%SíNo
April 301%SíNo
$865,7 mil Vol 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$11 Vol 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%SíNo
May 312%SíNo
$166,3 mil Vol 31/08
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$6 Vol 31/12
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
18%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$6 Vol 31/12
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$632,2 mil Vol 31/12
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
4%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$111,4 mil Vol 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%SíNo
June 301%SíNo
$21,8 M Vol 01/01
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
8%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$12,4 mil Vol 01/01
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 316%
June 301%
$767,4 mil Vol 01/01
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 312%SíNo
June 151%SíNo
$185,3 mil Vol 01/01
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$185,9 mil Vol 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117,8 mil Vol 01/01
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
10%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$236 mil Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Egypt by...?Will Iran target Egypt by...?
September 304%SíNo
September 152%SíNo
$21,3 mil Vol 30/09
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$53,6 mil Vol 31/12
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
93%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$167,4 mil Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Oman by...?Will Iran target Oman by...?
September 306%SíNo
September 154%SíNo
$28 mil Vol 30/09
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$32,4 mil Vol 31/12
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%SíNo
December 31, 20268%SíNo
$940,1 mil Vol 01/01
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142,2 mil Vol 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 M Vol 01/01
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