Mercados de Predicción Electoral

Los mercados electorales son el núcleo de Polymarket: elecciones presidenciales de EE. UU., primarias de partidos, carreras congresuales y cualquier voto de una democracia importante. Los mercados electorales de EE. UU. 2024 registraron miles de millones en volumen.

La fijación de precios combina encuestas, datos de financiamiento de partidos, indicadores económicos e informes, todo destilado en un solo precio. Un terreno de negociación rico tanto para analistas como para inversores impulsados por opiniones.

80 mercados activos
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Elecciones Presidenciales de BrasilElecciones Presidenciales de Brasil
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%SíNo
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro33%SíNo
$132,1 M Vol 04/10
Ganador de la Elección Presidencial 2028Ganador de la Elección Presidencial 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%SíNo
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%SíNo
$692,1 M Vol 07/11
Próxima Elección Presidencial FrancesaPróxima Elección Presidencial Francesa
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%SíNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%SíNo
$121,3 M Vol 30/04
Candidato Demócrata a la Presidencia 2028Candidato Demócrata a la Presidencia 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez23%SíNo
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%SíNo
$1.266,2 M Vol 07/11
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson90%SíNo
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%SíNo
$4 M Vol 13/09
Candidato presidencial republicano 2028Candidato presidencial republicano 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%SíNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%SíNo
$690,7 M Vol 07/11
¿Qué partido obtendrá más escaños en las elecciones parlamentarias rusas?¿Qué partido obtendrá más escaños en las elecciones parlamentarias rusas?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)71%SíNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)23%SíNo
$21,7 M Vol 20/09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%SíNo
September 3089%SíNo
$26,3 M Vol 31/08
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%SíNo
R Senate, D House39%SíNo
$10,4 M Vol 03/11
¿Quién será el próximo Primer Ministro de Israel después de las próximas elecciones?¿Quién será el próximo Primer Ministro de Israel después de las próximas elecciones?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%SíNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%SíNo
$33 M Vol 31/12
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$128,2 mil Vol 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%SíNo
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%SíNo
$419,1 mil Vol 05/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%SíNo
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)1%SíNo
$1,4 M Vol 13/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%SíNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%SíNo
$5,2 M Vol 04/10
¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara de Representantes en 2026?¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara de Representantes en 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%SíNo
$20,6 mil Vol 03/11
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33942%SíNo
340–35422%SíNo
$211,2 mil Vol 20/09
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%SíNo
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)49%SíNo
$870,8 mil Vol 03/11
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings28%SíNo
Anna KellyAnna Kelly16%SíNo
$147,5 mil Vol 31/12
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)62%SíNo
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%SíNo
$586,4 mil Vol 03/11
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%SíNo
September 3093%SíNo
$356,8 mil Vol 01/01
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%SíNo
Brett Smiley47%SíNo
$22,4 mil Vol 09/09
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva52%SíNo
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%SíNo
$20,9 mil Vol 06/06
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Edin FortoEdin Forto21%SíNo
Nermin NikšićNermin Nikšić13%SíNo
$64,1 mil Vol
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço73%SíNo
Lorenzo Pazolini25%SíNo
$29,9 mil Vol 05/10
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%SíNo
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%SíNo
$3,3 M Vol 20/09
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%SíNo
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%SíNo
$38,8 mil Vol 08/09
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu69%SíNo
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%SíNo
$113,7 mil Vol 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%SíNo
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto15%SíNo
$16,7 mil Vol 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo40%SíNo
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%SíNo
$23 mil Vol 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%SíNo
121-12423%SíNo
$10,6 mil Vol 12/10
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath51%SíNo
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%SíNo
$28,7 mil Vol 01/09
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha59%SíNo
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior38%SíNo
$15 mil Vol 04/10
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%SíNo
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud93%SíNo
$309,2 mil Vol 17/04
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$29,2 mil Vol 03/11
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%SíNo
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%SíNo
$485,6 mil Vol 03/11
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite34%SíNo
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%SíNo
$22,6 mil Vol 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%67%SíNo
7-9%22%SíNo
$13,6 mil Vol 13/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke57%SíNo
CDUCDU26%SíNo
$3,3 M Vol 20/09
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira39%SíNo
Julio CesarJulio Cesar29%SíNo
$17,3 mil Vol 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%SíNo
William Peña FarfánWilliam Peña Farfán23%SíNo
$18,4 mil Vol 04/10
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
58%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$167,5 mil Vol 20/09
¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3149%SíNo
May 311%SíNo
$6 mil Vol 01/01
Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?
Princess FakuPrincess Faku59%SíNo
Yomelela TyaliYomelela Tyali7%SíNo
$14,9 mil Vol 18/11
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães34%SíNo
GaguimGaguim32%SíNo
$14,2 mil Vol 04/10
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%SíNo
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)48%SíNo
$183 mil Vol 03/11
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes66%SíNo
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta31%SíNo
$13,9 mil Vol 04/10
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil74%SíNo
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé25%SíNo
$39,7 mil Vol 31/08
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$67,1 mil Vol 03/11
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Marília ArraesMarília Arraes40%SíNo
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%SíNo
$18,7 mil Vol 04/10
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%45%SíNo
5-7%40%SíNo
$8 mil Vol 06/09
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$39,6 mil Vol 03/11
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez37%SíNo
Duber Alberto Fernández SilvaDuber Alberto Fernández Silva25%SíNo
$6,2 mil Vol 04/10
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS48%SíNo
SV26%SíNo
$197,4 mil Vol 03/10
Federal District Senate Election: 1st PlaceFederal District Senate Election: 1st Place
Michelle BolsonaroMichelle Bolsonaro63%SíNo
Leila do VôleiLeila do Vôlei27%SíNo
$11,1 mil Vol 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas94%SíNo
Jim PriestJim Priest6%SíNo
$117,8 mil Vol Termina hoy
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%SíNo
59-6129%SíNo
$7,2 mil Vol 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%SíNo
Javier Antonio Onofre CcamaJavier Antonio Onofre Ccama15%SíNo
$8 mil Vol 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%SíNo
Democratic Party5%SíNo
$42,3 mil Vol 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%SíNo
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick5%SíNo
$5,4 mil Vol 06/02
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$37,5 mil Vol 03/11
Quebec General Election WinnerQuebec General Election Winner
PQPQ72%SíNo
PLQPLQ17%SíNo
$807,5 mil Vol 05/10
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%SíNo
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon47%SíNo
$92,3 mil Vol 30/04
Sonora Governor Election WinnerSonora Governor Election Winner
Lorenia Valles SampedroLorenia Valles Sampedro37%SíNo
Luis Donaldo Colosio RiojasLuis Donaldo Colosio Riojas31%SíNo
$20,7 mil Vol 06/06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$260,1 mil Vol 31/12
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
36%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$372,3 mil Vol 06/09
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%SíNo
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%SíNo
$210,5 mil Vol 11/10
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro41%SíNo
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni38%SíNo
$10,1 mil Vol 04/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour71%SíNo
Olivier Faure61%SíNo
$70,6 mil Vol 23/04
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%SíNo
4914%SíNo
$2,9 M Vol 03/11
Espírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceEspírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sergio MeneguelliSergio Meneguelli41%SíNo
Fabiano ContaratoFabiano Contarato32%SíNo
$15,3 mil Vol 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina35%SíNo
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo28%SíNo
$13,9 mil Vol 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone77%SíNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%SíNo
$13,8 mil Vol 2 días restantes
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1024%SíNo
1220%SíNo
$10,4 mil Vol 03/11
São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election WinnerSão Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner
MLSTPMLSTP68%SíNo
ADIADI30%SíNo
$8,9 mil Vol 27/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone97%SíNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman2%SíNo
$19,8 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira37%SíNo
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro34%SíNo
$28,3 mil Vol 04/10
Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?
Mattias OttossonMattias Ottosson63%SíNo
Marie MorellMarie Morell21%SíNo
$15,5 mil Vol 13/09
Goiás Senate Election: 2nd PlaceGoiás Senate Election: 2nd Place
Gustavo GayerGustavo Gayer55%SíNo
Vanderlan CardosoVanderlan Cardoso20%SíNo
$23,6 mil Vol 04/10
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos58%SíNo
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana27%SíNo
$16,2 mil Vol 04/10
VA-03 House Election WinnerVA-03 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party2%SíNo
$60,6 mil Vol 03/11
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¿Qué mercados electorales están activos ahora?

EE. UU. 2028, Israel (por fecha), elecciones locales del Reino Unido y la UE, además de primarias de partidos. Sigue nuestra página para actualizaciones.

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Verifica la liquidez (profundidad del libro de órdenes), la volatilidad histórica y la fecha de decisión. Los mercados con poca liquidez son propensos a precios ineficientes.

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