Mercati di previsione sul Medio Oriente

I mercati di previsione sul Medio Oriente prezzano le maggiori domande della regione: cessate il fuoco, sanzioni, colloqui sul nucleare, elezioni e conflitti, come probabilità live che si aggiornano a ogni notizia.

Su Polymarket questi mercati hanno spesso una liquidità profonda attorno agli eventi di cronaca e durano settimane o mesi. Polymarkets segue i prezzi e le quote reali dei mercati su Israele, Iran, Gaza e Golfo, così puoi leggere la visione della folla in tempo reale, confrontare gli scenari ed esercitarti senza rischi in modalità allenamento prima di fare trading su Polymarket.

80 mercati attivi
Iran Gaza Israele Ostaggi Iran-Israele Israele-Hezbollah Israele-Hamas Yemen Accordo nucleare
Ordina
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SìNo
August 25August 2599%SìNo
$2,5 Mln Volume 30/09
Accordo nucleare finale USA-Iran entro...?Accordo nucleare finale USA-Iran entro...?
31 dicembre12%SìNo
November 307%SìNo
$16,2 Mln Volume 01/01
Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027? Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027?
17%
probabilità
Sì No
$84.559 Volume 31/12
Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%SìNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%SìNo
$33 Mln Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
September 3039%SìNo
September 1518%SìNo
$40.518 Volume 30/09
Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027? Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$79.389 Volume 31/12
Leader iraniano entro la fine del 2026?Leader iraniano entro la fine del 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei82%SìNo
Nessun capo di stato4%SìNo
$38,8 Mln Volume 31/12
L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre? L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre?
14%
probabilità
Sì No
$22.372 Volume 31/12
USD x Iranian rials End of August?USD x Iranian rials End of August?
2.0-2.1M46%SìNo
2.1-2.2M34%SìNo
$20.582 Volume 31/08
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%SìNo
October 3113%SìNo
$6,8 Mln Volume 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
September 3094%SìNo
August 3177%SìNo
$21.863 Volume 30/09
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$108.048 Volume 01/10
Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3149%SìNo
May 311%SìNo
$5.963 Volume 01/01
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3033%SìNo
September 1516%SìNo
$5.048 Volume 30/09
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 2478%SìNo
August 1776%SìNo
$21.863 Volume 31/08
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Arabia SauditaArabia Saudita10%SìNo
VenezuelaVenezuela10%SìNo
$4.234 Volume 31/12
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 225%
August 3130%
$3.545 Volume 31/08
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%SìNo
September 307%SìNo
$2.313 Volume 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.704 Volume 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%SìNo
513%SìNo
$1.652 Volume 31/12
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?
↑ 2.0M97%SìNo
↑ 2.1M58%SìNo
$1.578 Volume 31/08
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 311%
$1 Mln Volume 01/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.748 Volume 31/08
Will Iran target Bahrain by...?Will Iran target Bahrain by...?
August 3140%SìNo
September 3035%SìNo
$1.170 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
September 3050%SìNo
September 1520%SìNo
$1.052 Volume 30/09
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?
September 1551%SìNo
September 3051%SìNo
$957 Volume 30/09
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
21%
probabilità
Sì No
$30.289 Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%SìNo
June 263%SìNo
$1,6 Mln Volume 01/09
Will Iran target Syria by...?Will Iran target Syria by...?
September 157%SìNo
September 307%SìNo
$674 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Iraq by...?Will Iran target Iraq by...?
September 3040%SìNo
September 1534%SìNo
$647 Volume 30/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.748 Volume 31/12
L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 settembre? L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 settembre?
4%
probabilità
Sì No
$22.372 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Kuwait by...?Will Iran target Kuwait by...?
September 3032%SìNo
September 1520%SìNo
$379 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Qatar by...?Will Iran target Qatar by...?
September 30September 3023%SìNo
September 15September 1511%SìNo
$356 Volume 30/09
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%SìNo
March 311%SìNo
$294 Volume 01/01
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$344.611 Volume 31/12
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$160.820 Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
probabilità
Sì No
$174.291 Volume 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$1,7 Mln Volume 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$146 Volume 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%SìNo
Lebanon9%SìNo
$143 Volume 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
10%
probabilità
Sì No
$73 Volume 31/12
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
December 31, 202550%SìNo
December 31, 202629%SìNo
$456.370 Volume 01/01
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SìNo
December 3150%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$1,2 Mln Volume
L'Iran accetta di consegnare il deposito di uranio arricchito entro...?L'Iran accetta di consegnare il deposito di uranio arricchito entro...?
31 dicembre8%SìNo
31 ottobre3%SìNo
$17,8 Mln Volume 01/01
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$55 Volume 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20268%SìNo
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%SìNo
$533.274 Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%SìNo
May 312%SìNo
$341.551 Volume 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$194.155 Volume 31/12
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$100.506 Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%SìNo
December 3150%SìNo
$4,1 Mln Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$137.334 Volume 31/08
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%SìNo
July 312%SìNo
$100.672 Volume 31/08
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$158.351 Volume 31/12
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
probabilità
Sì No
$15 Volume 31/12
Iran Nuke before 2027? Iran Nuke before 2027?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$13 Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 Mln Volume 01/01
Masoud Pezeshkian fuori dalla carica entro...?Masoud Pezeshkian fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3115%SìNo
April 301%SìNo
$865.673 Volume 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$11 Volume 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%SìNo
May 312%SìNo
$166.285 Volume 31/08
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$6 Volume 31/12
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
18%
probabilità
Sì No
$6 Volume 31/12
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$632.152 Volume 31/12
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
4%
probabilità
Sì No
$111.361 Volume 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%SìNo
June 301%SìNo
$21,8 Mln Volume 01/01
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$12.421 Volume 01/01
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 316%
June 301%
$767.367 Volume 01/01
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 312%SìNo
June 151%SìNo
$185.337 Volume 01/01
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$185.868 Volume 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117.835 Volume 01/01
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
10%
probabilità
Sì No
$236.000 Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Egypt by...?Will Iran target Egypt by...?
September 304%SìNo
September 152%SìNo
$21.340 Volume 30/09
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
probabilità
Sì No
$53.582 Volume 31/12
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
93%
probabilità
Sì No
$167.448 Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Oman by...?Will Iran target Oman by...?
September 306%SìNo
September 154%SìNo
$28.013 Volume 30/09
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$32.412 Volume 31/12
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%SìNo
December 31, 20268%SìNo
$940.097 Volume 01/01
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142.154 Volume 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 Mln Volume 01/01
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FAQ sui mercati del Medio Oriente

Cosa coprono i mercati sul Medio Oriente?
Sviluppi su Israele e Iran, cessate il fuoco a Gaza e nella regione, sanzioni, negoziati sull'accordo nucleare, elezioni e più ampi esiti dei conflitti, ciascuno come mercato sì/no o a esiti multipli con una probabilità live.
Come funzionano le quote?
Ogni esito viene scambiato tra 1¢ e 99¢; il prezzo è la probabilità implicita del mercato. I prezzi si muovono in tempo reale mentre i trader reagiscono alle notizie, quindi riflettono il consenso attuale più che una linea fissa.
Posso seguirli o testarli senza rischi?
Sì. La modalità allenamento gratuita di Polymarkets ti permette di fare trading simulato su qualsiasi mercato con prezzi live e 1.000 $ di denaro di pratica, nessuna carta e nessun rischio, prima di passare a Polymarket.
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