Pasar Prediksi Politik

Pasar politik adalah salah satu yang terdalam di Polymarket: pemilihan AS (presiden, Kongres), Israel, Inggris, Jerman, Prancis, dan Brasil. Juga krisis pemerintahan, suara tidak percaya, pemakzulan, dan penunjukan kabinet.

Polling adalah salah satu input di antara banyak; pasar prediksi menggabungkan polling, pengetahuan pemilih, data sosial, dan ramalan ahli menjadi satu harga. Seringkali lebih akurat daripada polling tunggal mana pun.

100 pasar aktif
Pemilu Trump AS-Tiongkok Perang Ukraina Putin United States United Kingdom France Russia Brazil China
Urutkan
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
14%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$9,5 jt Volume 01/01
Keputusan Fed pada September?Keputusan Fed pada September?
No changeNo change68%YaTidak
25 bps increase25 bps increase32%YaTidak
$1,1 jt Volume 16/09
Pemilihan Presiden BrasilPemilihan Presiden Brasil
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%YaTidak
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro33%YaTidak
$132,1 jt Volume 04/10
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%YaTidak
August 25August 2599%YaTidak
$2,5 jt Volume 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%YaTidak
October 3154%YaTidak
$19,3 jt Volume 01/01
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 18 Agustus - 25 Agustus, 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 18 Agustus - 25 Agustus, 2026?
300-31940%YaTidak
320-33937%YaTidak
$543,1 rb Volume 2 hari tersisa
Pemenang Pemilihan Presiden 2028Pemenang Pemilihan Presiden 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%YaTidak
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%YaTidak
$692,1 jt Volume 07/11
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 22 Agustus - 24 Agustus, 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 22 Agustus - 24 Agustus, 2026?
40-6479%YaTidak
<4019%YaTidak
$320,9 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Pemilihan Presiden Prancis SelanjutnyaPemilihan Presiden Prancis Selanjutnya
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%YaTidak
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%YaTidak
$121,3 jt Volume 30/04
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$173,1 rb Volume 31/12
Calon Presiden Demokrat 2028Calon Presiden Demokrat 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez23%YaTidak
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%YaTidak
$1,3 miliar Volume 07/11
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson90%YaTidak
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%YaTidak
$4 jt Volume 13/09
Nominee Presiden Republik 2028Nominee Presiden Republik 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%YaTidak
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%YaTidak
$690,7 jt Volume 07/11
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Desember? Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Desember?
35%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$378,5 rb Volume 31/12
Partai mana yang akan memperoleh kursi terbanyak dalam Pemilu Parlemen Rusia?Partai mana yang akan memperoleh kursi terbanyak dalam Pemilu Parlemen Rusia?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)71%YaTidak
New People (NL)New People (NL)23%YaTidak
$21,7 jt Volume 20/09
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Agustus?Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Agustus?
August 311%
August 151%
$378,5 rb Volume 01/09
Putaran berikutnya pembicaraan damai AS-Iran oleh...?Putaran berikutnya pembicaraan damai AS-Iran oleh...?
March 31, 202765%YaTidak
December 31, 202652%YaTidak
$116 rb Volume 01/04
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 21 Agustus - 28 Agustus, 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 21 Agustus - 28 Agustus, 2026?
200-21920%YaTidak
220-23920%YaTidak
$543,1 rb Volume 5 hari tersisa
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 30 September? Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 30 September?
6%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$378,5 rb Volume 30/09
Apakah AS akan menyerang Iran sebelum 2027? Apakah AS akan menyerang Iran sebelum 2027?
17%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$84,6 rb Volume 31/12
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%YaTidak
R Senate, D House39%YaTidak
$10,4 jt Volume 03/11
Putin keluar sebagai Presiden Rusia sebelum 31 Desember 2026?Putin keluar sebagai Presiden Rusia sebelum 31 Desember 2026?
June 30, 202714%YaTidak
December 31, 20268%YaTidak
$69,2 rb Volume 01/07
Siapa yang akan menjadi Perdana Menteri Israel berikutnya setelah pemilihan mendatang?Siapa yang akan menjadi Perdana Menteri Israel berikutnya setelah pemilihan mendatang?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%YaTidak
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%YaTidak
$33 jt Volume 31/12
Akankah China menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026? Akankah China menginvasi Taiwan pada akhir 2026?
4%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$44,1 rb Volume 31/12
Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 30 September? Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 30 September?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$79,4 rb Volume 30/09
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 25 Agustus - 1 September, 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 25 Agustus - 1 September, 2026?
200-21914%YaTidak
220-23914%YaTidak
$543,1 rb Volume 01/09
Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 2027? Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 2027?
7%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$79,4 rb Volume 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%YaTidak
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%YaTidak
$6,2 jt Volume 01/01
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$128,2 rb Volume 20/09
Israel menutup ruang udaranya pada...?Israel menutup ruang udaranya pada...?
September 308%YaTidak
August 312%YaTidak
$27,4 jt Volume 01/10
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%YaTidak
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%YaTidak
$419,1 rb Volume 05/10
Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei82%YaTidak
Tidak Ada Kepala Negara4%YaTidak
$38,8 jt Volume 31/12
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$173,1 rb Volume 31/08
Akankah AS mengonfirmasi keberadaan alien pada...?Akankah AS mengonfirmasi keberadaan alien pada...?
December 314%YaTidak
September 301%YaTidak
$65,5 jt Volume 01/01
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202725%YaTidak
December 3116%YaTidak
$24 jt Volume 01/07
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274,2 rb Volume 01/09
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk12%YaTidak
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni3%YaTidak
$32,3 rb Volume 31/08
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 315%YaTidak
September 30September 305%YaTidak
$22,3 rb Volume 01/01
Akankah Iran setuju menghentikan pengayaan uranium sebelum 31 Desember? Akankah Iran setuju menghentikan pengayaan uranium sebelum 31 Desember?
14%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$22,6 rb Volume 31/12
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3152%YaTidak
ChinaChina45%YaTidak
$20,8 rb Volume 31/12
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 24 Agustus - 26 Agustus, 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 24 Agustus - 26 Agustus, 2026?
40-6446%YaTidak
65-8929%YaTidak
$320,9 rb Volume 3 hari tersisa
Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Dewan Perwakilan pada 2026?Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Dewan Perwakilan pada 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%YaTidak
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%YaTidak
$20,6 rb Volume 03/11
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%YaTidak
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)1%YaTidak
$1,4 jt Volume 13/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%YaTidak
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%YaTidak
$5,2 jt Volume 04/10
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 30 November? Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 30 November?
25%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$378,5 rb Volume 30/11
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3152%YaTidak
October 31October 3119%YaTidak
$1,4 jt Volume 01/01
Di mana putaran berikutnya pembicaraan damai AS-Iran akan berlangsung...?Di mana putaran berikutnya pembicaraan damai AS-Iran akan berlangsung...?
Tidak ada Pertemuan sebelum 30 September74%YaTidak
Swiss10%YaTidak
$17,6 rb Volume 30/09
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
8%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$17,5 rb Volume 31/12
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf43%YaTidak
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%YaTidak
$16,9 rb Volume 31/12
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Oktober? Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Oktober?
16%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$378,5 rb Volume 31/10
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding17%YaTidak
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)11%YaTidak
$687,4 rb Volume 31/12
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33942%YaTidak
340–35422%YaTidak
$211,2 rb Volume 20/09
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3118%YaTidak
October 3111%YaTidak
$11,1 jt Volume 01/01
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk pada Agustus 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk pada Agustus 2026?
880-91924%YaTidak
840-87919%YaTidak
$16,7 rb Volume 01/09
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3152%YaTidak
September 3010%YaTidak
$382,3 rb Volume 01/01
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 15 September? Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 15 September?
2%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$378,5 rb Volume 15/09
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%YaTidak
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)49%YaTidak
$870,8 rb Volume 03/11
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
15%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$189,8 rb Volume 31/12
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)62%YaTidak
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%YaTidak
$586 rb Volume 03/11
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya8%YaTidak
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy5%YaTidak
$23,5 jt Volume 10/10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202758%YaTidak
March 31, 202741%YaTidak
$6 jt Volume 01/07
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings28%YaTidak
Anna KellyAnna Kelly16%YaTidak
$146,4 rb Volume 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202668%YaTidak
December9%YaTidak
$333,4 rb Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%YaTidak
September 3093%YaTidak
$356,8 rb Volume 01/01
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%YaTidak
Brett Smiley47%YaTidak
$22,4 rb Volume 09/09
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva52%YaTidak
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%YaTidak
$20,9 rb Volume 06/06
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Edin FortoEdin Forto21%YaTidak
Nermin NikšićNermin Nikšić13%YaTidak
$64,1 rb Volume
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço73%YaTidak
Lorenzo Pazolini25%YaTidak
$29,9 rb Volume 05/10
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%YaTidak
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%YaTidak
$3,3 jt Volume 20/09
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%YaTidak
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%YaTidak
$38,8 rb Volume 08/09
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman76%YaTidak
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin46%YaTidak
$32,3 rb Volume 31/12
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu69%YaTidak
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%YaTidak
$113,7 rb Volume 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%YaTidak
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto15%YaTidak
$16,7 rb Volume 04/10
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2495%YaTidak
August 2893%YaTidak
$9,1 rb Volume 01/09
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo40%YaTidak
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%YaTidak
$23 rb Volume 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%YaTidak
121-12423%YaTidak
$10,6 rb Volume 12/10
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath51%YaTidak
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%YaTidak
$28,6 rb Volume 01/09
White House # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?White House # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+65%YaTidak
180-19934%YaTidak
$11,3 rb Volume 2 hari tersisa
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+89%YaTidak
180-19910%YaTidak
$11,4 rb Volume 2 hari tersisa
Andrew Tate released from custody by...?Andrew Tate released from custody by...?
December 3117%YaTidak
August 317%YaTidak
$245,3 rb Volume 01/01
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha59%YaTidak
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior38%YaTidak
$14,9 rb Volume 04/10
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%YaTidak
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud93%YaTidak
$309 rb Volume 17/04
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$29,2 rb Volume 03/11
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva48%YaTidak
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy47%YaTidak
$24,4 rb Volume 04/10
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$7,5 rb Volume 31/12
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%YaTidak
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%YaTidak
$485,6 rb Volume 03/11
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31December 3135%YaTidak
September 30September 307%YaTidak
$2,9 jt Volume 01/01
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite34%YaTidak
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%YaTidak
$22,6 rb Volume 04/10
Zelenskyy # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Zelenskyy # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
80-9980%YaTidak
100-11910%YaTidak
$8,1 rb Volume 2 hari tersisa
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%67%YaTidak
7-9%22%YaTidak
$13,6 rb Volume 13/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke57%YaTidak
CDUCDU26%YaTidak
$3,3 jt Volume 20/09
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira39%YaTidak
Julio CesarJulio Cesar29%YaTidak
$17,3 rb Volume 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%YaTidak
William Peña FarfánWilliam Peña Farfán23%YaTidak
$18,4 rb Volume 04/10
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
58%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$167,5 rb Volume 20/09
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%YaTidak
Delcy Rodríguez10%YaTidak
$95,8 jt Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
87%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$6,2 rb Volume 31/12
Akankah Netanyahu lengser sebelum...?Akankah Netanyahu lengser sebelum...?
December 3149%YaTidak
May 311%YaTidak
$6 rb Volume 01/01
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera49%YaTidak
Gricelda Valencia de la MoraGricelda Valencia de la Mora27%YaTidak
$22,8 rb Volume 06/06
Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?
Princess FakuPrincess Faku59%YaTidak
Yomelela TyaliYomelela Tyali7%YaTidak
$14,9 rb Volume 18/11
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães34%YaTidak
GaguimGaguim32%YaTidak
$14,2 rb Volume 04/10
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FAQ Pasar Politik

Apakah pasar prediksi lebih akurat daripada polling?

Seringkali, ya. Mereka menggabungkan informasi yang beragam (polling, pengetahuan dalam, analisis) menjadi satu harga. Tidak sempurna; anggap mereka sebagai alat kunci, bukan satu-satunya.

Pemilihan apa yang dicakup di Polymarket?

Pemilihan presiden dan kongres AS, pemerintah Eropa dan Asia, perlombaan lokal kunci, pemilihan pendahuluan partai. Setiap demokrasi besar mendapatkan cakupan yang berarti.

Bagaimana cara berdagang pemilihan dengan cerdas?

Ikuti polling standar tetapi hindari pasar dengan likuiditas tipis. Melindungi posisi menjelang debat atau wawancara besar dapat mengurangi risiko pada posisi yang terkonsentrasi.

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