Pasar Prediksi Trump

Pasar prediksi Trump adalah salah satu yang paling aktif di Polymarket: masa jabatan, proses hukum, kebijakan luar negeri (Ukraina, China, Timur Tengah), kebijakan domestik, dan persetujuan umum. Volume melebihi ratusan juta dolar.

Pasar ini bereaksi kuat terhadap setiap pernyataan besar, melalui Truth Social, wawancara, atau pengumuman Gedung Putih. Liputan berita waktu nyata menciptakan peluang perdagangan.

100 pasar aktif
Urutkan
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
18%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$9,8 jt Volume 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%YaTidak
August 25August 2599%YaTidak
$2,6 jt Volume 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%YaTidak
October 3152%YaTidak
$19,4 jt Volume 01/01
Putaran berikutnya pembicaraan damai AS-Iran oleh...?Putaran berikutnya pembicaraan damai AS-Iran oleh...?
March 31, 202765%YaTidak
December 31, 202652%YaTidak
$106,9 rb Volume 01/04
Apakah AS akan menyerang Iran sebelum 2027? Apakah AS akan menyerang Iran sebelum 2027?
17%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$90,3 rb Volume 31/12
Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 2027? Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 2027?
7%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$87,1 rb Volume 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%YaTidak
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%YaTidak
$6,2 jt Volume 01/01
Keputusan Fed pada Oktober?Keputusan Fed pada Oktober?
No change72%YaTidak
25 bps increase25%YaTidak
$2,1 jt Volume 28/10
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%YaTidak
September 158%YaTidak
$673,3 rb Volume 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274,2 rb Volume 01/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff45%YaTidak
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%YaTidak
$22,2 rb Volume 31/12
Akankah Iran setuju menghentikan pengayaan uranium sebelum 31 Desember? Akankah Iran setuju menghentikan pengayaan uranium sebelum 31 Desember?
14%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$22,1 rb Volume 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3040%YaTidak
August 3112%YaTidak
$914,9 rb Volume 01/10
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3124%YaTidak
October 3115%YaTidak
$5,9 jt Volume 01/01
Di mana putaran berikutnya pembicaraan damai AS-Iran akan berlangsung...?Di mana putaran berikutnya pembicaraan damai AS-Iran akan berlangsung...?
Tidak ada Pertemuan sebelum 30 September74%YaTidak
Swiss10%YaTidak
$17,5 rb Volume 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina52%YaTidak
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3148%YaTidak
$16,8 rb Volume 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2494%YaTidak
August 3192%YaTidak
$15,4 rb Volume 01/09
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$29 rb Volume 31/12
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$29 rb Volume 31/08
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%YaTidak
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%YaTidak
$149,6 rb Volume 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%YaTidak
CATLCATL19%YaTidak
$186,9 rb Volume 30/06
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+88%YaTidak
180-19912%YaTidak
$11,5 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%YaTidak
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin48%YaTidak
$10,7 rb Volume 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$7,5 rb Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$7,2 rb Volume 31/12
Apakah Xi Jinping akan mengunjungi AS sebelum 2027?Apakah Xi Jinping akan mengunjungi AS sebelum 2027?
December 3197%YaTidak
October 3196%YaTidak
$739,5 rb Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%YaTidak
Delcy Rodríguez10%YaTidak
$95,8 jt Volume 31/12
Keputusan Fed pada Desember?Keputusan Fed pada Desember?
No change61%YaTidak
25 bps increase29%YaTidak
$2,1 jt Volume 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%YaTidak
4914%YaTidak
$2,9 jt Volume 03/11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$4 rb Volume 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$260,1 rb Volume 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God90%YaTidak
Boom / Booming81%YaTidak
$5,4 rb Volume 7 hari tersisa
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
62%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$5,8 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Keputusan Fed pada Januari?Keputusan Fed pada Januari?
No change61%YaTidak
25 bps increase22%YaTidak
$2,1 jt Volume 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil30%YaTidak
John Brennan18%YaTidak
$389 rb Volume
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%YaTidak
1019%YaTidak
$10,5 rb Volume 03/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%YaTidak
September 302%YaTidak
$29,1 jt Volume 01/01
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Iran 5+ times63%YaTidak
Go ahead 5+ times58%YaTidak
$3,3 rb Volume 31/08
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Movie Star52%YaTidak
Green New Scam52%YaTidak
$2,9 rb Volume 31/08
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk11%YaTidak
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni7%YaTidak
$10,7 rb Volume 31/08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202755%YaTidak
March 31, 202744%YaTidak
$6 jt Volume 01/07
What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?What will Scott Bessent say during press conference?
Oil / Gas / Gasoline86%YaTidak
Regime80%YaTidak
$2,5 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%YaTidak
618%YaTidak
$11,9 rb Volume 03/11
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%YaTidak
40+2%YaTidak
$2,4 rb Volume 31/08
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%YaTidak
September 1578%YaTidak
$2,6 rb Volume 01/10
What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Trump 10+ times99%YaTidak
Illegal Alien99%YaTidak
$2,2 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Good Morning80%YaTidak
Productivity77%YaTidak
$45,6 rb Volume 5 hari tersisa
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202724%
$43,4 rb Volume 01/07
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
23%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$3,5 rb Volume 5 hari tersisa
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3126%
$188,8 rb Volume 01/01
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+61%YaTidak
180-19920%YaTidak
$11,5 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%YaTidak
4717%YaTidak
$7,2 rb Volume 03/11
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%YaTidak
September 1132%YaTidak
$57,5 rb Volume 01/10
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping74%YaTidak
Doug FordDoug Ford42%YaTidak
$1,5 rb Volume 31/08
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26,1 rb Volume 01/07
What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?What will Trump say during Rose Garden event?
Child / Children 5+ times92%YaTidak
College87%YaTidak
$1,4 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%YaTidak
October 318%YaTidak
$1,1 jt Volume 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+53%YaTidak
180-19926%YaTidak
$11,5 rb Volume 01/09
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz55%YaTidak
Elon MuskElon Musk44%YaTidak
$1,4 rb Volume 31/08
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Candace OwensCandace Owens27%YaTidak
Kaitlan CollinsKaitlan Collins27%YaTidak
$1,3 rb Volume 31/08
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
December 3118%YaTidak
September 3016%YaTidak
$1,3 rb Volume 01/01
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism90%YaTidak
Crime88%YaTidak
$1,6 rb Volume 7 hari tersisa
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%45%YaTidak
4.0%31%YaTidak
$6,8 jt Volume 09/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$1,7 rb Volume 31/08
Akankah Kash Patel lengser sebelum...?Akankah Kash Patel lengser sebelum...?
December 3125%YaTidak
September 308%YaTidak
$1,7 jt Volume 01/01
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland99%YaTidak
JermanJerman39%YaTidak
$1,2 rb Volume 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%YaTidak
Daniel PennyDaniel Penny21%YaTidak
$428,5 rb Volume 31/12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
285M56%YaTidak
270M1%YaTidak
$59,3 rb Volume 09/09
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%YaTidak
August 311%YaTidak
$6,3 jt Volume 01/01
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%YaTidak
September 302%YaTidak
$22,3 rb Volume 01/01
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$64,7 rb Volume 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20262%
$55,5 rb Volume 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%YaTidak
SwissSwiss3%YaTidak
$904 Volume 31/12
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3148%YaTidak
September 302%YaTidak
$152,1 rb Volume 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
16%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$839 Volume 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%YaTidak
38.5–38.930%YaTidak
$779 Volume 5 hari tersisa
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%YaTidak
221%YaTidak
$3,9 rb Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%YaTidak
532%YaTidak
$6,1 rb Volume 03/11
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202619%
March 31, 20266%
$89 rb Volume 01/01
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$1,6 jt Volume 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%YaTidak
Rigetti79%YaTidak
$173,1 rb Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%YaTidak
December 3150%YaTidak
$2,9 jt Volume 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%YaTidak
September 307%YaTidak
$6,4 jt Volume 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%YaTidak
January 311%YaTidak
$3,4 jt Volume 01/01
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$547 Volume 31/12
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India18%YaTidak
Israel16%YaTidak
$504 Volume 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%YaTidak
60+33%YaTidak
$676,4 rb Volume 31/12
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?
December 31, 202629%YaTidak
August 31, 20263%YaTidak
$87,4 rb Volume 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$10,6 jt Volume 31/12
Iran setuju untuk menyerahkan stok uranium yang diperkaya oleh...?Iran setuju untuk menyerahkan stok uranium yang diperkaya oleh...?
31 Desember8%YaTidak
31 Oktober3%YaTidak
$17,8 jt Volume 01/01
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
52%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$306,9 rb Volume 31/12
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
20%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$7,4 rb Volume 7 hari tersisa
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%YaTidak
30%30%6%YaTidak
$386 Volume 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%YaTidak
226%YaTidak
$4,7 rb Volume 03/11
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%YaTidak
June 263%YaTidak
$1,6 jt Volume 01/09
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$419 Volume 20/01
Fed abolished before 2027? Fed abolished before 2027?
5%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$352 Volume 31/12
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
October 3172%YaTidak
September 3061%YaTidak
$347 Volume 01/11
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$107,6 rb Volume 31/12
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%YaTidak
Likud31%YaTidak
$29,3 rb Volume 28/10
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FAQ Pasar Trump

Pasar Trump mana yang aktif sekarang?

Persetujuan tahunan, hasil kebijakan tertentu, proses hukum, hasil negosiasi internasional, dan keputusan penunjukan senior.

Apa yang mempengaruhi harga?

Pernyataan Trump (terutama di Truth Social), pengumuman resmi Gedung Putih, putusan pengadilan, dan tindakan Kongres. Reaksi sangat cepat.

Bagaimana cara mengelola risiko di pasar Trump?

Volatilitas tinggi: bangun posisi secara bertahap, hindari konsentrasi berlebihan di satu pasar, dan periksa kedalaman buku pesanan sebelum masuk.

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