Pasar Prediksi Pemilu

Pasar pemilu adalah inti dari Polymarket: pemilihan presiden AS, pemilihan partai, perlombaan kongres, dan suara dari setiap demokrasi besar. Pasar pemilu AS 2024 mencatat miliaran dalam volume.

Penetapan harga menggabungkan jajak pendapat, data keuangan partai, indikator ekonomi, dan laporan, semuanya disaring menjadi satu harga. Tanah perdagangan yang kaya bagi analis dan investor yang dipandu opini.

80 pasar aktif
Urutkan
Pemilihan Presiden BrasilPemilihan Presiden Brasil
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%YaTidak
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro33%YaTidak
$132,1 jt Volume 04/10
Pemenang Pemilihan Presiden 2028Pemenang Pemilihan Presiden 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%YaTidak
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%YaTidak
$692,1 jt Volume 07/11
Pemilihan Presiden Prancis SelanjutnyaPemilihan Presiden Prancis Selanjutnya
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%YaTidak
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%YaTidak
$121,3 jt Volume 30/04
Calon Presiden Demokrat 2028Calon Presiden Demokrat 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez23%YaTidak
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%YaTidak
$1,3 miliar Volume 07/11
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson90%YaTidak
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%YaTidak
$4 jt Volume 13/09
Nominee Presiden Republik 2028Nominee Presiden Republik 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%YaTidak
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%YaTidak
$690,7 jt Volume 07/11
Partai mana yang akan memperoleh kursi terbanyak dalam Pemilu Parlemen Rusia?Partai mana yang akan memperoleh kursi terbanyak dalam Pemilu Parlemen Rusia?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)71%YaTidak
New People (NL)New People (NL)23%YaTidak
$21,7 jt Volume 20/09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%YaTidak
September 3089%YaTidak
$26,3 jt Volume 31/08
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%YaTidak
R Senate, D House39%YaTidak
$10,4 jt Volume 03/11
Siapa yang akan menjadi Perdana Menteri Israel berikutnya setelah pemilihan mendatang?Siapa yang akan menjadi Perdana Menteri Israel berikutnya setelah pemilihan mendatang?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%YaTidak
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%YaTidak
$33 jt Volume 31/12
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$128,2 rb Volume 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%YaTidak
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%YaTidak
$419,1 rb Volume 05/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%YaTidak
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)1%YaTidak
$1,4 jt Volume 13/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%YaTidak
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%YaTidak
$5,2 jt Volume 04/10
Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Dewan Perwakilan pada 2026?Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Dewan Perwakilan pada 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%YaTidak
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%YaTidak
$20,6 rb Volume 03/11
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33942%YaTidak
340–35422%YaTidak
$211,2 rb Volume 20/09
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%YaTidak
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)49%YaTidak
$870,8 rb Volume 03/11
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings28%YaTidak
Anna KellyAnna Kelly16%YaTidak
$147,5 rb Volume 31/12
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)62%YaTidak
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%YaTidak
$586,4 rb Volume 03/11
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%YaTidak
September 3093%YaTidak
$356,8 rb Volume 01/01
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%YaTidak
Brett Smiley47%YaTidak
$22,4 rb Volume 09/09
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva52%YaTidak
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%YaTidak
$20,9 rb Volume 06/06
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Edin FortoEdin Forto21%YaTidak
Nermin NikšićNermin Nikšić13%YaTidak
$64,1 rb Volume
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço73%YaTidak
Lorenzo Pazolini25%YaTidak
$29,9 rb Volume 05/10
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%YaTidak
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%YaTidak
$3,3 jt Volume 20/09
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%YaTidak
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%YaTidak
$38,8 rb Volume 08/09
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu69%YaTidak
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%YaTidak
$113,7 rb Volume 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%YaTidak
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto15%YaTidak
$16,7 rb Volume 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo40%YaTidak
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%YaTidak
$23 rb Volume 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%YaTidak
121-12423%YaTidak
$10,6 rb Volume 12/10
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath51%YaTidak
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%YaTidak
$28,7 rb Volume 01/09
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha59%YaTidak
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior38%YaTidak
$15 rb Volume 04/10
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%YaTidak
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud93%YaTidak
$309,2 rb Volume 17/04
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$29,2 rb Volume 03/11
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%YaTidak
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%YaTidak
$485,6 rb Volume 03/11
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite34%YaTidak
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%YaTidak
$22,6 rb Volume 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%67%YaTidak
7-9%22%YaTidak
$13,6 rb Volume 13/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke57%YaTidak
CDUCDU26%YaTidak
$3,3 jt Volume 20/09
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira39%YaTidak
Julio CesarJulio Cesar29%YaTidak
$17,3 rb Volume 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%YaTidak
William Peña FarfánWilliam Peña Farfán23%YaTidak
$18,4 rb Volume 04/10
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
58%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$167,5 rb Volume 20/09
Akankah Netanyahu lengser sebelum...?Akankah Netanyahu lengser sebelum...?
December 3149%YaTidak
May 311%YaTidak
$6 rb Volume 01/01
Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?
Princess FakuPrincess Faku59%YaTidak
Yomelela TyaliYomelela Tyali7%YaTidak
$14,9 rb Volume 18/11
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães34%YaTidak
GaguimGaguim32%YaTidak
$14,2 rb Volume 04/10
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%YaTidak
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)48%YaTidak
$183 rb Volume 03/11
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes66%YaTidak
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta31%YaTidak
$13,9 rb Volume 04/10
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil74%YaTidak
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé25%YaTidak
$39,7 rb Volume 31/08
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$67,1 rb Volume 03/11
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Marília ArraesMarília Arraes40%YaTidak
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%YaTidak
$18,7 rb Volume 04/10
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%45%YaTidak
5-7%40%YaTidak
$8 rb Volume 06/09
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$39,6 rb Volume 03/11
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez37%YaTidak
Duber Alberto Fernández SilvaDuber Alberto Fernández Silva25%YaTidak
$6,2 rb Volume 04/10
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS48%YaTidak
SV26%YaTidak
$197,4 rb Volume 03/10
Federal District Senate Election: 1st PlaceFederal District Senate Election: 1st Place
Michelle BolsonaroMichelle Bolsonaro63%YaTidak
Leila do VôleiLeila do Vôlei27%YaTidak
$11,1 rb Volume 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas94%YaTidak
Jim PriestJim Priest6%YaTidak
$117,8 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%YaTidak
59-6129%YaTidak
$7,2 rb Volume 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%YaTidak
Javier Antonio Onofre CcamaJavier Antonio Onofre Ccama15%YaTidak
$8 rb Volume 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%YaTidak
Democratic Party5%YaTidak
$42,3 rb Volume 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%YaTidak
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick5%YaTidak
$5,4 rb Volume 06/02
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$37,5 rb Volume 03/11
Quebec General Election WinnerQuebec General Election Winner
PQPQ72%YaTidak
PLQPLQ17%YaTidak
$807,5 rb Volume 05/10
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%YaTidak
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon47%YaTidak
$92,3 rb Volume 30/04
Sonora Governor Election WinnerSonora Governor Election Winner
Lorenia Valles SampedroLorenia Valles Sampedro37%YaTidak
Luis Donaldo Colosio RiojasLuis Donaldo Colosio Riojas31%YaTidak
$20,7 rb Volume 06/06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$260,1 rb Volume 31/12
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
36%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$372,3 rb Volume 06/09
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%YaTidak
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%YaTidak
$210,5 rb Volume 11/10
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro41%YaTidak
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni38%YaTidak
$10,1 rb Volume 04/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour71%YaTidak
Olivier Faure61%YaTidak
$70,6 rb Volume 23/04
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%YaTidak
4914%YaTidak
$2,9 jt Volume 03/11
Espírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceEspírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sergio MeneguelliSergio Meneguelli41%YaTidak
Fabiano ContaratoFabiano Contarato32%YaTidak
$15,3 rb Volume 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina35%YaTidak
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo28%YaTidak
$13,9 rb Volume 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone77%YaTidak
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%YaTidak
$13,8 rb Volume 2 hari tersisa
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1024%YaTidak
1220%YaTidak
$10,4 rb Volume 03/11
São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election WinnerSão Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner
MLSTPMLSTP68%YaTidak
ADIADI30%YaTidak
$8,9 rb Volume 27/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone97%YaTidak
Ralph NormanRalph Norman2%YaTidak
$19,8 rb Volume 2 hari tersisa
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira37%YaTidak
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro34%YaTidak
$28,3 rb Volume 04/10
Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?
Mattias OttossonMattias Ottosson63%YaTidak
Marie MorellMarie Morell21%YaTidak
$15,5 rb Volume 13/09
Goiás Senate Election: 2nd PlaceGoiás Senate Election: 2nd Place
Gustavo GayerGustavo Gayer55%YaTidak
Vanderlan CardosoVanderlan Cardoso20%YaTidak
$23,6 rb Volume 04/10
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos58%YaTidak
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana27%YaTidak
$16,2 rb Volume 04/10
VA-03 House Election WinnerVA-03 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party2%YaTidak
$60,6 rb Volume 03/11
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FAQ Pasar Pemilu

Mengapa pasar pemilu akurat?

Mereka memerlukan 'skin in the game': orang-orang menaruh uang pada pandangan mereka, menyaring kebisingan berkualitas rendah. Semakin besar volumenya, semakin dapat diandalkan harganya.

Pasar pemilu mana yang sedang berlangsung sekarang?

AS 2028, Israel (berdasarkan tanggal), pemilihan lokal Inggris dan UE, serta pemilihan partai. Ikuti halaman kami untuk pembaruan.

Bagaimana cara saya menilai risiko di pasar pemilu?

Periksa likuiditas (kedalaman order-book), volatilitas historis, dan tanggal keputusan. Pasar dengan likuiditas tipis rentan terhadap penetapan harga yang tidak efisien.

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