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Größter Börsengang nach Marktkapitalisierung 2026?Größter Börsengang nach Marktkapitalisierung 2026?
SpaceXSpaceX64%JaNein
AnthropicAnthropic37%JaNein
$5,5 Mio. Vol 31/12
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6%
Chance
Ja Nein
$307,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Wird die USA bestätigen, dass Außerirdische existieren bis...?Wird die USA bestätigen, dass Außerirdische existieren bis...?
December 314%JaNein
September 301%JaNein
$65,5 Mio. Vol 01/01
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12%
Chance
Ja Nein
$20,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6%
Chance
Ja Nein
$144,5 Tsd. Vol 31/03
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 3196%JaNein
September 3088%JaNein
$4,9 Tsd. Vol 01/07
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Fewer than 2043%JaNein
20 to 3439%JaNein
$3 Tsd. Vol 31/03
Niederschlag in Hong Kong im August?Niederschlag in Hong Kong im August?
<425mm82%JaNein
500-525mm14%JaNein
$9,8 Tsd. Vol 01/09
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
171%JaNein
225%JaNein
$3,4 Mio. Vol 31/12
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑3k99%JaNein
↑3.5k95%JaNein
$1,1 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
88%
Chance
Ja Nein
$39,9 Tsd. Vol 30/06
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$811,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202716%
$48 Tsd. Vol 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
80-9939%JaNein
100–11937%JaNein
$6 Tsd. Vol 01/09
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...? Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
17%
Chance
Ja Nein
$10,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
October 31, 20268%
December 31, 20268%
$3,5 Tsd. Vol 01/01
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<562%JaNein
5-635%JaNein
$493 Vol 31/12
Neue Pandemie im Jahr 2026? Neue Pandemie im Jahr 2026?
6%
Chance
Ja Nein
$496 Vol 31/12
Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?
10,000+99%JaNein
15,000+99%JaNein
$458 Vol 31/08
Natural Disaster in 2026? Natural Disaster in 2026?
27%
Chance
Ja Nein
$241,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?
1382%JaNein
1412%JaNein
$335 Vol 31/08
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.42–1.45ºC48%JaNein
1.38–1.41ºC42%JaNein
$3,3 Tsd. Vol 01/09
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–1642%JaNein
17–1937%JaNein
$250 Vol 31/12
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
9%
Chance
Ja Nein
$11,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2%
Chance
Ja Nein
$116,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
December 31, 202836%JaNein
December 31, 202732%JaNein
$1,9 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16%
Chance
Ja Nein
$340,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Niederschlag in Seattle im August?Niederschlag in Seattle im August?
weniger als 0.5"weniger als 0.5"89%JaNein
0.5-1"0.5-1"11%JaNein
$234 Vol 01/09
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
063%JaNein
126%JaNein
$1,2 Mio. Vol 31/03
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?
December 31, 20261%
December 31, 202715%
$11 Tsd. Vol 01/01
5kt meteor strike in 2026? 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
29%
Chance
Ja Nein
$52 Vol 31/12
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
3%
Chance
Ja Nein
$578,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Niederschlag in Seoul im August?Niederschlag in Seoul im August?
<150mm45%JaNein
150-200mm45%JaNein
$283 Vol 01/09
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
2%
Chance
Ja Nein
$196 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
13%
Chance
Ja Nein
$139,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$425 Vol 31/12
100kt meteor strike in 2026? 100kt meteor strike in 2026?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$8,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 202768%JaNein
June 30, 202754%JaNein
$935,7 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Niederschlag in NYC im August?Niederschlag in NYC im August?
mehr als 6"mehr als 6"83%JaNein
4-5"4-5"3%JaNein
$2,5 Tsd. Vol 01/09
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
38%
Chance
Ja Nein
$8 Vol 31/12
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest99%JaNein
2nd hottest1%JaNein
$1,8 Tsd. Vol 01/09
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-15949%JaNein
160-17941%JaNein
$335 Vol 31/12
Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record? Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
97%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,1 Tsd. Vol 01/10
Niederschlag in London im August?Niederschlag in London im August?
<30mm60%JaNein
30-40mm34%JaNein
$7,6 Tsd. Vol 01/09
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$650 Vol 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+88%JaNein
1200–12496%JaNein
$81,9 Tsd. Vol 10/01
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
6%
Chance
Ja Nein
$16,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
89%
Chance
Ja Nein
$2,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
72%
Chance
Ja Nein
$8 Vol 31/12
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
December 31December 3167%JaNein
October 31October 3166%JaNein
$4,7 Tsd. Vol
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
August 30August 3048%JaNein
October 31October 3147%JaNein
$1,4 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Human moon landing in 2026? Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$2 Mio. Vol 31/12
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
4%
Chance
Ja Nein
$23,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
October 31, 202650%JaNein
September 30, 202619%JaNein
$1,9 Tsd. Vol 01/11
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below75%JaNein
8.0 – 8.19%JaNein
$2,4 Tsd. Vol 04/01
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
10%
Chance
Ja Nein
$101,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
SpaceX94%
OpenAI6%
$11,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
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