Mercati di previsione su Israele

I mercati di previsione su Israele coprono gli scenari centrali: risultati elettorali, composizione della coalizione, durata del mandato del premier, eventi di sicurezza e di guerra e sviluppi macroeconomici. Polymarket prezza in tempo reale in base alla profondità dell'order book.

Questi mercati sono particolarmente attivi attorno alle date decisive: giorno delle elezioni, riunioni del gabinetto di sicurezza, sedute di governo. Il volume riflette l'interesse globale per gli eventi.

71 mercati attivi
Ordina
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SìNo
August 25August 2599%SìNo
$2,7 Mln Volume 30/09
Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027? Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$400.961 Volume 31/12
Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027? Gli Stati Uniti invaderanno l'Iran prima del 2027?
17%
probabilità
Sì No
$233.913 Volume 31/12
Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot55%SìNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%SìNo
$33 Mln Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%SìNo
September 3089%SìNo
$26,3 Mln Volume 31/08
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%SìNo
October 3114%SìNo
$6,9 Mln Volume 01/01
Israele chiuderà il suo spazio aereo... ?Israele chiuderà il suo spazio aereo... ?
September 308%SìNo
August 312%SìNo
$27,4 Mln Volume 01/10
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%SìNo
September 3093%SìNo
$356.810 Volume 01/01
Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3149%SìNo
May 311%SìNo
$7.090 Volume 01/01
Israele si ritira dal Libano entro...?Israele si ritira dal Libano entro...?
December 3110%SìNo
September 302%SìNo
$8,4 Mln Volume 01/01
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Arabia SauditaArabia Saudita10%SìNo
LebanonLebanon10%SìNo
$4.411 Volume 31/12
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 3076%SìNo
September 1566%SìNo
$3.085 Volume 01/10
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 315%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$309.079 Volume 31/08
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%SìNo
November 3050%SìNo
$3,6 Mln Volume 01/01
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3127%SìNo
September 307%SìNo
$2.565 Volume 01/01
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%SìNo
513%SìNo
$2.116 Volume 31/12
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.721 Volume 31/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.577 Volume 31/08
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%SìNo
September 302%SìNo
$22.338 Volume 01/01
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
25-2934%SìNo
20-2431%SìNo
$106.038 Volume 27/10
Bank of Israel Decision in September?Bank of Israel Decision in September?
No Change92%SìNo
Decrease9%SìNo
$1.842 Volume 01/09
How many Israeli elections before government formed?How many Israeli elections before government formed?
172%SìNo
227%SìNo
$15.196 Volume 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%SìNo
March 311%SìNo
$699 Volume 01/01
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SìNo
December 3150%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 01/01
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
91%
probabilità
Sì No
$3.520 Volume 27/10
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%SìNo
Likud31%SìNo
$29.298 Volume 28/10
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.577 Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 Mln Volume 01/01
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$1,7 Mln Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
August 311%SìNo
June 301%SìNo
$137.503 Volume 31/08
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
14%
probabilità
Sì No
$9.759 Volume 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland17%SìNo
Lebanon9%SìNo
$149 Volume 31/12
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$138 Volume 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%SìNo
August 311%SìNo
$1,2 Mln Volume
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
September 3013%SìNo
August 312%SìNo
$190.198 Volume 31/08
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud53%SìNo
YasharYashar46%SìNo
$236.633 Volume 27/10
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20268%SìNo
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%SìNo
$533.274 Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3110%SìNo
May 312%SìNo
$341.551 Volume 31/08
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
22%
probabilità
Sì No
$3.733 Volume 27/10
Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list? Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
26%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.410 Volume 08/09
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$30 Volume 31/12
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
BelgioBelgio17%SìNo
FinlandFinland16%SìNo
$28 Volume 31/12
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%SìNo
July 312%SìNo
$100.672 Volume 31/08
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
49%
probabilità
Sì No
$611 Volume 31/12
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 314%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$16 Volume 31/08
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
94%
probabilità
Sì No
$13.711 Volume 27/10
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%SìNo
May 312%SìNo
$166.285 Volume 31/08
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$6 Volume 31/12
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 304%
$140.278 Volume 01/10
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 Mln Volume 01/01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%SìNo
June 301%SìNo
$21,8 Mln Volume 01/01
Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026? Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$7.109 Volume 31/12
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142.154 Volume 01/01
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%SìNo
December 31, 20268%SìNo
$940.097 Volume 01/01
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
probabilità
Sì No
$53.582 Volume 31/12
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
12%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.148 Volume 31/12
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
probabilità
Sì No
$90.027 Volume 31/12
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
9%
probabilità
Sì No
$185.868 Volume 31/12
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
10%
probabilità
Sì No
$236.000 Volume 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117.835 Volume 01/01
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$3.021 Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%SìNo
December 3150%SìNo
$4,1 Mln Volume 01/01
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?
June 30, 20261%
August 31, 20261%
$95.686 Volume 01/09
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
39%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.499 Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?
December 3117%SìNo
April 302%SìNo
$52.681 Volume 01/01
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
13%
probabilità
Sì No
$33.023 Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
December 318%
June 301%
$477.873 Volume 01/01
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$194.155 Volume 31/12
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
15%
probabilità
Sì No
$99.357 Volume 31/12
Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30? Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$1.972 Volume 30/09
US announces military base in Israel in 2026? US announces military base in Israel in 2026?
18%
probabilità
Sì No
$484 Volume 31/12
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FAQ sui mercati su Israele

Quali mercati su Israele esistono su Polymarket?

Mercati elettorali (chi vince? numero di seggi), sulla formazione della coalizione, sulle mosse del premier, sugli eventi di sicurezza e sulle decisioni economiche (tagli dei tassi, modifiche di legge). Contratti binari e a esiti multipli.

Cosa muove i prezzi dei mercati su Israele?

Sondaggi, dichiarazioni politiche, sviluppi della sicurezza e cronaca dei media. I prezzi reagiscono in pochi minuti alle notizie rilevanti.

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