Mercati di previsione sulle elezioni

I mercati elettorali sono il cuore di Polymarket: presidenziali USA, primarie di partito, corse al Congresso e il voto di qualsiasi grande democrazia. I mercati sulle elezioni USA del 2024 hanno registrato miliardi di volume.

Il prezzo combina sondaggi, dati sui finanziamenti dei partiti, indicatori economici e cronaca, tutto sintetizzato in un unico valore. Un terreno di trading ricco sia per gli analisti sia per gli investitori guidati dalle opinioni.

80 mercati attivi
Ordina
Elezioni presidenziali in BrasileElezioni presidenziali in Brasile
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%SìNo
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro33%SìNo
$132,1 Mln Volume 04/10
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%SìNo
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%SìNo
$692,1 Mln Volume 07/11
Prossime elezioni presidenziali francesiProssime elezioni presidenziali francesi
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%SìNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%SìNo
$121,3 Mln Volume 30/04
Candidato presidenziale Democratico 2028Candidato presidenziale Democratico 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez23%SìNo
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%SìNo
$1,3 Mld Volume 07/11
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson90%SìNo
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%SìNo
$4 Mln Volume 13/09
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%SìNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%SìNo
$690,7 Mln Volume 07/11
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)71%SìNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)23%SìNo
$21,7 Mln Volume 20/09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%SìNo
September 3089%SìNo
$26,3 Mln Volume 31/08
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%SìNo
R Senate, D House39%SìNo
$10,4 Mln Volume 03/11
Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?Chi sarà il prossimo Primo Ministro di Israele dopo le prossime elezioni?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%SìNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%SìNo
$33 Mln Volume 31/12
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$128.166 Volume 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%SìNo
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%SìNo
$419.122 Volume 05/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%SìNo
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)1%SìNo
$1,4 Mln Volume 13/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%SìNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%SìNo
$5,2 Mln Volume 04/10
Quale partito vincerà la Camera dei Rappresentanti nel 2026?Quale partito vincerà la Camera dei Rappresentanti nel 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%SìNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%SìNo
$20.593 Volume 03/11
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33942%SìNo
340–35422%SìNo
$211.185 Volume 20/09
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%SìNo
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)49%SìNo
$870.818 Volume 03/11
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings28%SìNo
Anna KellyAnna Kelly16%SìNo
$147.473 Volume 31/12
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)62%SìNo
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%SìNo
$586.417 Volume 03/11
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%SìNo
September 3093%SìNo
$356.810 Volume 01/01
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%SìNo
Brett Smiley47%SìNo
$22.371 Volume 09/09
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva52%SìNo
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%SìNo
$20.938 Volume 06/06
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Edin FortoEdin Forto21%SìNo
Nermin NikšićNermin Nikšić13%SìNo
$64.137 Volume
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço73%SìNo
Lorenzo Pazolini25%SìNo
$29.872 Volume 05/10
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%SìNo
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%SìNo
$3,3 Mln Volume 20/09
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%SìNo
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%SìNo
$38.821 Volume 08/09
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu69%SìNo
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%SìNo
$113.692 Volume 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%SìNo
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto15%SìNo
$16.700 Volume 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo40%SìNo
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%SìNo
$22.960 Volume 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%SìNo
121-12423%SìNo
$10.575 Volume 12/10
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath51%SìNo
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%SìNo
$28.698 Volume 01/09
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha59%SìNo
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior38%SìNo
$14.954 Volume 04/10
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%SìNo
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud93%SìNo
$309.164 Volume 17/04
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party5%SìNo
$29.162 Volume 03/11
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%SìNo
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%SìNo
$485.584 Volume 03/11
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite34%SìNo
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%SìNo
$22.650 Volume 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%67%SìNo
7-9%22%SìNo
$13.630 Volume 13/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke57%SìNo
CDUCDU26%SìNo
$3,3 Mln Volume 20/09
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira39%SìNo
Julio CesarJulio Cesar29%SìNo
$17.295 Volume 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%SìNo
William Peña FarfánWilliam Peña Farfán23%SìNo
$18.396 Volume 04/10
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
58%
probabilità
Sì No
$167.499 Volume 20/09
Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3149%SìNo
May 311%SìNo
$5.959 Volume 01/01
Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?
Princess FakuPrincess Faku59%SìNo
Yomelela TyaliYomelela Tyali7%SìNo
$14.866 Volume 18/11
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães34%SìNo
GaguimGaguim32%SìNo
$14.158 Volume 04/10
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%SìNo
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)48%SìNo
$182.974 Volume 03/11
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes66%SìNo
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta31%SìNo
$13.932 Volume 04/10
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil74%SìNo
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé25%SìNo
$39.726 Volume 31/08
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party5%SìNo
$67.065 Volume 03/11
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Marília ArraesMarília Arraes40%SìNo
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%SìNo
$18.677 Volume 04/10
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%45%SìNo
5-7%40%SìNo
$8.027 Volume 06/09
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party5%SìNo
$39.626 Volume 03/11
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez37%SìNo
Duber Alberto Fernández SilvaDuber Alberto Fernández Silva25%SìNo
$6.156 Volume 04/10
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS48%SìNo
SV26%SìNo
$197.399 Volume 03/10
Federal District Senate Election: 1st PlaceFederal District Senate Election: 1st Place
Michelle BolsonaroMichelle Bolsonaro63%SìNo
Leila do VôleiLeila do Vôlei27%SìNo
$11.103 Volume 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas94%SìNo
Jim PriestJim Priest6%SìNo
$117.832 Volume Termina oggi
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%SìNo
59-6129%SìNo
$7.225 Volume 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%SìNo
Javier Antonio Onofre CcamaJavier Antonio Onofre Ccama15%SìNo
$7.996 Volume 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%SìNo
Democratic Party5%SìNo
$42.251 Volume 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%SìNo
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick5%SìNo
$5.358 Volume 06/02
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party5%SìNo
$37.527 Volume 03/11
Quebec General Election WinnerQuebec General Election Winner
PQPQ72%SìNo
PLQPLQ17%SìNo
$807.478 Volume 05/10
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%SìNo
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon47%SìNo
$92.321 Volume 30/04
Sonora Governor Election WinnerSonora Governor Election Winner
Lorenia Valles SampedroLorenia Valles Sampedro37%SìNo
Luis Donaldo Colosio RiojasLuis Donaldo Colosio Riojas31%SìNo
$20.686 Volume 06/06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
probabilità
Sì No
$260.127 Volume 31/12
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
36%
probabilità
Sì No
$372.329 Volume 06/09
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%SìNo
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%SìNo
$210.543 Volume 11/10
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro41%SìNo
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni38%SìNo
$10.120 Volume 04/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour71%SìNo
Olivier Faure61%SìNo
$70.616 Volume 23/04
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%SìNo
4914%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 03/11
Espírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceEspírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sergio MeneguelliSergio Meneguelli41%SìNo
Fabiano ContaratoFabiano Contarato32%SìNo
$15.331 Volume 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina35%SìNo
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo28%SìNo
$13.924 Volume 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone77%SìNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%SìNo
$13.813 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1024%SìNo
1220%SìNo
$10.410 Volume 03/11
São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election WinnerSão Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner
MLSTPMLSTP68%SìNo
ADIADI30%SìNo
$8.909 Volume 27/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone97%SìNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman2%SìNo
$19.776 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira37%SìNo
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro34%SìNo
$28.267 Volume 04/10
Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?
Mattias OttossonMattias Ottosson63%SìNo
Marie MorellMarie Morell21%SìNo
$15.537 Volume 13/09
Goiás Senate Election: 2nd PlaceGoiás Senate Election: 2nd Place
Gustavo GayerGustavo Gayer55%SìNo
Vanderlan CardosoVanderlan Cardoso20%SìNo
$23.604 Volume 04/10
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos58%SìNo
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana27%SìNo
$16.216 Volume 04/10
VA-03 House Election WinnerVA-03 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party2%SìNo
$60.634 Volume 03/11
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FAQ sui mercati elettorali

Perché i mercati elettorali sono accurati?

Richiedono di "metterci del proprio": le persone puntano denaro sulle proprie idee, filtrando il rumore di bassa qualità. Maggiore è il volume, più affidabile è il prezzo.

Quali mercati elettorali sono attivi ora?

USA 2028, Israele (per data), elezioni locali nel Regno Unito e nell'UE, oltre alle primarie di partito. Segui la nostra pagina per gli aggiornamenti.

Come valuto il rischio nei mercati elettorali?

Controlla la liquidità (profondità dell'order book), la volatilità storica e la data della decisione. I mercati con poca liquidità tendono a un prezzo inefficiente.

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