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FRBは2026年に何回利下げする？FRBは2026年に何回利下げする？
0 (0 bps)86%はいいいえ
1 (25 bps)10%はいいいえ
$4,948.8万 取引高 31/12
Largest Company end of September?Largest Company end of September?
NVIDIANVIDIA93%はいいいえ
AppleApple5%はいいいえ
$16万 取引高 30/09
Largest Company end of August?Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIANVIDIA98%はいいいえ
AppleApple2%はいいいえ
$16万 取引高 31/08
2026年、時価総額で最大のIPOは？2026年、時価総額で最大のIPOは？
SpaceXSpaceX63%はいいいえ
AnthropicAnthropic36%はいいいえ
$553万 取引高 31/12
Largest Company end of December 2026?Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIANVIDIA73%はいいいえ
AppleApple14%はいいいえ
$16万 取引高 31/12
2nd Largest Company end of August?2nd Largest Company end of August?
AppleApple95%はいいいえ
AlphabetAlphabet5%はいいいえ
$6,371 取引高 31/08
3rd Largest Company end of August?3rd Largest Company end of August?
AlphabetAlphabet95%はいいいえ
AppleApple3%はいいいえ
$4,963 取引高 31/08
IPOs before 2027?IPOs before 2027?
SHEINSHEIN98%はいいいえ
AnthropicAnthropic90%はいいいえ
$4,713 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
$6.00-$6.5023%はいいいえ
$5.50-$6.0020%はいいいえ
$8,419 取引高 31/12
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Anthropic95%
OpenAI5%
$31.9万 取引高 31/12
2026年末までに米国景気後退？ 2026年末までに米国景気後退？
8%
確率
はい いいえ
$4,254 取引高 31/12
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$10.4万 取引高 01/01
GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?
$6.50+39%はいいいえ
$6.00-$6.5027%はいいいえ
$8,419 取引高 31/10
2027年までにどの企業が買収されるか？2027年までにどの企業が買収されるか？
PayPalPayPal46%はいいいえ
MGM ResortsMGM Resorts34%はいいいえ
$1,818万 取引高 31/12
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 3042%はいいいえ
August 3111%はいいいえ
$1,738 取引高 01/10
GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?
$1.00-$1.2561%はいいいえ
$0.75-$1.0024%はいいいえ
$1,677 取引高 31/10
GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?
$6.50-$7.0037%はいいいえ
$5.50-$6.0022%はいいいえ
$8,419 取引高 30/09
GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?
$4.50-$5.0037%はいいいえ
$5.00-$5.5025%はいいいえ
$2,872 取引高 31/08
OpenAIは___までにIPO？OpenAIは___までにIPO？
December 31, 202617%はいいいえ
September 30, 20261%はいいいえ
$287.5万 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?
$4.50-$5.0029%はいいいえ
$4.00-$4.5027%はいいいえ
$2,872 取引高 31/10
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,238 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?
$2.75-$3.0026%はいいいえ
$3.00+24%はいいいえ
$2,597 取引高 31/10
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?
$0.45-$0.5035%はいいいえ
$0.50-$0.5524%はいいいえ
$1,560 取引高 31/10
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AppleApple47%はいいいえ
AlphabetAlphabet37%はいいいえ
$6,371 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?
$2.75-$3.0039%はいいいえ
$3.00-$3.2526%はいいいえ
$2,597 取引高 31/08
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?
Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs62%はいいいえ
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley29%はいいいえ
$5.1万 取引高 31/12
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
WorkhorseWorkhorse24%はいいいえ
Beyond MeatBeyond Meat14%はいいいえ
$22.8万 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?
$2.50-$2.7526%はいいいえ
$2.75-$3.0019%はいいいえ
$2,597 取引高 30/09
2027年末までに米国景気後退？ 2027年末までに米国景気後退？
36%
確率
はい いいえ
$4,254 取引高 31/12
Richest person on December 31, 2026?Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon MuskElon Musk97%はいいいえ
Warren BuffettWarren Buffett1%はいいいえ
$577 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?
$0.50-$0.5549%はいいいえ
$0.45-$0.5029%はいいいえ
$1,560 取引高 31/08
GPU rental prices (B200) end of August?GPU rental prices (B200) end of August?
$6.50-$7.0038%はいいいえ
$6.00-$6.5025%はいいいえ
$8,419 取引高 31/08
Krakenは___までにIPO？Krakenは___までにIPO？
December 3150%はいいいえ
December 31, 202616%はいいいえ
$159.8万 取引高 01/01
AI bubble burst by...?AI bubble burst by...?
December 31, 202550%はいいいえ
December 31, 202611%はいいいえ
$293.2万 取引高 01/01
2nd Largest Company end of September?2nd Largest Company end of September?
AppleApple76%はいいいえ
AlphabetAlphabet21%はいいいえ
$6,371 取引高 30/09
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
LloydsLloyds3%はいいいえ
US BankUS Bank3%はいいいえ
$211 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?
↓ $4.0086%はいいいえ
↑ $6.0072%はいいいえ
$181 取引高 31/12
2027年までにFRBの緊急利下げ？ 2027年までにFRBの緊急利下げ？
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$178 取引高 31/12
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?
75%76%はいいいえ
80%45%はいいいえ
$166 取引高 31/12
Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?
↑ 200B HKD72%はいいいえ
↑ 250B HKD30%はいいいえ
$1.4万 取引高 31/12
3rd Largest Company end of September?3rd Largest Company end of September?
AlphabetAlphabet69%はいいいえ
AppleApple19%はいいいえ
$4,963 取引高 30/09
OpenAI IPO 終値時価総額OpenAI IPO 終値時価総額
1.5T+41%はいいいえ
1T–1.25T20%はいいいえ
$7,051 取引高 31/12
JIO Platformsは___までにIPO？JIO Platformsは___までにIPO？
December 3166%はいいいえ
September 3027%はいいいえ
$1.2万 取引高 01/01
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
26%
確率
はい いいえ
$8.2万 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H200) end of September?GPU rental prices (H200) end of September?
$4.50-$5.0023%はいいいえ
$5.00-$5.5019%はいいいえ
$2,872 取引高 30/09
CopperTech Metals IPO 終値時価総額CopperTech Metals IPO 終値時価総額
No IPO before September 202697%はいいいえ
$4.8B-$5.4B2%はいいいえ
$70 取引高 01/09
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
28%
確率
はい いいえ
$30.4万 取引高 31/12
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
OpenAIOpenAI30%はいいいえ
GoogleGoogle17%はいいいえ
$49 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (B200) hit___ in 2026?GPU rental prices (B200) hit___ in 2026?
↓ $5.5077%はいいいえ
↓ $5.0077%はいいいえ
$45 取引高 31/12
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B83%はいいいえ
$1T76%はいいいえ
$152.1万 取引高 31/12
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AlphabetAlphabet45%はいいいえ
AppleApple26%はいいいえ
$4,963 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?
$2.50-$3.0034%はいいいえ
$2.00-$2.5016%はいいいえ
$2,597 取引高 31/12
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
14%
確率
はい いいえ
$10万 取引高 31/12
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
80%
確率
はい いいえ
$20 取引高 31/12
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
19%
確率
はい いいえ
$16 取引高 31/12
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?
ICEICE22%はいいいえ
ForecastExForecastEx11%はいいいえ
$16 取引高 31/12
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$425 取引高 31/12
FIFA: UEFA to End FIFA Boycott By…?FIFA: UEFA to End FIFA Boycott By…?
September 21, 202644%はいいいえ
September 7, 202641%はいいいえ
$8,073 取引高
Deepseekは___までにIPO？Deepseekは___までにIPO？
December 31, 202776%はいいいえ
September 30, 202748%はいいいえ
$1.5万 取引高 01/01
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Anthropic acquired before 2027?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$10 取引高 31/12
Alphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?Alphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$4.00-$4.50T25%はいいいえ
$4.50-$5.00T22%はいいいえ
$82 取引高 31/12
Which nicotine pouch brands will be bought by Big Tobacco?Which nicotine pouch brands will be bought by Big Tobacco?
Juice Head44%はいいいえ
Lucy42%はいいいえ
$654 取引高 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
38%
確率
はい いいえ
$8 取引高 31/12
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?
17%
確率
はい いいえ
$7 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of September?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of September?
$0.50-$0.5536%はいいいえ
$0.45-$0.5033%はいいいえ
$1,560 取引高 30/09
Will fomo.family be acquired in 2026? Will fomo.family be acquired in 2026?
16%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,438 取引高 01/01
Bloombergは___までにIPO？Bloombergは___までにIPO？
December 31, 202747%はいいいえ
June 30, 202737%はいいいえ
$4,584 取引高 01/01
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Sundar Pichai - GoogleSundar Pichai - Google8%はいいいえ
Sam Altman - OpenAISam Altman - OpenAI8%はいいいえ
$71.1万 取引高 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
73%
確率
はい いいえ
$8 取引高 31/12
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?
Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs76%はいいいえ
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley23%はいいいえ
$4.3万 取引高 31/12
Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?
December 31, 202753%はいいいえ
June 30, 202751%はいいいえ
$606 取引高 01/01
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
JetBlueJetBlue9%はいいいえ
Frontier AirlinesFrontier Airlines7%はいいいえ
$14.9万 取引高 31/12
Ben Pasternak jailed? Ben Pasternak jailed?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$5.1万 取引高 31/12
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?
Up91%
Down9%
$2.6万 取引高 28/02
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?
18%
確率
はい いいえ
$5.2万 取引高 31/12
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
56%
確率
はい いいえ
$7.3万 取引高 31/12
3rd richest person on December 31?3rd richest person on December 31?
Sergey BrinSergey Brin45%はいいいえ
Mark ZuckerbergMark Zuckerberg39%はいいいえ
$2.5万 取引高 31/12
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
SpaceX94%
OpenAI6%
$1.1万 取引高 31/12
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Clip-on device for clothing19%はいいいえ
Necklace11%はいいいえ
$41.2万 取引高 31/12
GPU rental prices (A100) end of August?GPU rental prices (A100) end of August?
$1.00-$1.2594%はいいいえ
$1.25-$1.504%はいいいえ
$1,677 取引高 31/08
GPU rental prices (A100) end of September?GPU rental prices (A100) end of September?
$1.00-$1.2569%はいいいえ
$0.75-$1.0022%はいいいえ
$1,677 取引高 30/09
Strava IPO 終値時価総額Strava IPO 終値時価総額
7B–10B7B–10B32%はいいいえ
2B–3B2B–3B29%はいいいえ
$8.9万 取引高 31/12
Microsoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?Microsoft’s Market Cap end of 2026?
<$2.50T50%はいいいえ
$2.50-$3.00T50%はいいいえ
$0 取引高 31/12
Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026?Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$2.50-$3.00T36%はいいいえ
$3.00-$3.50T26%はいいいえ
$1,659 取引高 31/12
Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$6.50T+20%はいいいえ
$6.00-$6.50T18%はいいいえ
$3,549 取引高 31/12
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
15%
確率
はい いいえ
$29.8万 取引高 31/12
Apple’s Market Cap end of 2026?Apple’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$4.00-$4.50T23%はいいいえ
$4.50-$5.00T23%はいいいえ
$1,076 取引高 31/12
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026? Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?
11%
確率
はい いいえ
$3.1万 取引高 01/01
Perplexity IPO 終値時価総額Perplexity IPO 終値時価総額
No IPO before 202865%はいいいえ
<20B8%はいいいえ
$14.7万 取引高 31/12
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?
9%
確率
はい いいえ
$3.2万 取引高 31/12
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9%3.9%10%はいいいえ
3.6%3.6%5%はいいいえ
$22.5万 取引高 31/12
Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?
Reliance Industries Ltd82%はいいいえ
Bajaj Finance Ltd10%はいいいえ
$1.3万 取引高 31/12
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
5%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.7万 取引高 31/12
Critical Discord Incident by...?Critical Discord Incident by...?
August 3115%
September 3057%
$4,679 取引高 01/10
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
Anthropic72%
OpenAI28%
$9 取引高 31/12
OpenAI acquired before 2027? OpenAI acquired before 2027?
4%
確率
はい いいえ
$4,599 取引高 31/12
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?1%
December 3146%
$732 取引高 01/01
GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?
$4.00-$4.5020%はいいいえ
$5.50-$6.0018%はいいいえ
$2,872 取引高 31/12
Discord IPO 終値時価総額Discord IPO 終値時価総額
8–11B25%はいいいえ
No IPO by December 31, 202722%はいいいえ
$3.2万 取引高 31/12
Discord IPO by __?Discord IPO by __?
December 3127%はいいいえ
November 3020%はいいいえ
$4,440 取引高 01/01
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