Polymarket News: Latest Prediction Market Events & Analysis

Business Polymarket Seeks $1 Billion at Double Its April Valuation Polymarket is in talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion, according to people familiar with the discussions, more than double August 5, 2026 Geopolitics An 1712 Law Lets Any South Carolinian Sue Polymarket A South Carolina law firm has sued Polymarket and DraftKings under a 1712 civil-recovery statute that lets any resident of the state, not just someone August 4, 2026 Business Lazio Drop Polymarket Shirt Sponsor After Italy Block S.S. Lazio has walked away from a shirt-sponsorship deal worth about €22 million with Polymarket, barely 3 months after signing it, because Italy's Cu August 3, 2026 Business Fanatics Bought a Federal Exchange That Was 11 Days Old Fanatics is buying its own federally regulated exchange and clearinghouse. The exchange was 11 days old. The clearinghouse was registered in 2010 to s July 29, 2026 Geopolitics Minnesota Was 5 Days From Making Polymarket a Felony A federal judge froze Minnesota's prediction market ban 5 days before it took effect. The reason matters more than the block: a court held these contr July 28, 2026 World Cup 2026 7 Integrity Alerts From the World Cup, and 2 of Them Point at Polymarket A Council of Europe-backed body issued 7 alerts over betting patterns at the 2026 World Cup. Two involve Polymarket: about $4.8 million staked on Spai July 27, 2026 Geopolitics Polymarket Will Fight France's Nationwide Block in Court France's gambling regulator ordered the country's internet providers to cut off polymarket.com on July 16, 2026, after counting 578,751 French visits July 25, 2026 Business Trump Jr.'s Firm Is Up 200%, and Polymarket Is a Big Reason 1789 Capital, the firm co-run by Donald Trump Jr., posted about 200% returns. It bought into Polymarket at a $300 million valuation in 2025; after a U July 24, 2026 Investigation The Typical Polymarket Trader Isn't a Whale. She's Down Two Dollars. The World Cup leaderboard sold a story of millions. Pew's census of nearly 12,000 accounts tells the real one: small stakes, constant taps, and a crow July 23, 2026 World Cup 2026 Five Wallets Took the Millions. Everyone Else Paid the Cover. Spain lifted the trophy. On Polymarket, five wallets lifted almost everything else. The rest of the crowd mostly paid a ten-dollar cover charge for th July 21, 2026 Geopolitics The Tip Over Lunch, and the Ledger That Never Forgets A whisper over lunch disappears. A trade placed on that whisper is printed on a public chain that never forgets. July 19, 2026 Business The Villa Got a Ledger: How Love Island Turned Fans Into Traders A dating show became one of the year's most volatile markets. The crowd was sure who would win. It was wrong at the start, and an AI fake nearly rewro July 18, 2026 Geopolitics The Frenchman Who Out-Polled America While the polls called 2024 a coin flip, one anonymous Frenchman bet the mortgage on a hunch about what people won't admit to a stranger. July 17, 2026 Geopolitics The People Betting on Their Own Elections The sharpest edge in an election market isn't a model. It's a staffer who has already seen tomorrow's poll. July 17, 2026 Business The Insiders Who Forgot the Ledger Never Forgets Secret information is only an edge if the trail stays secret. On a public ledger, it never does. July 17, 2026 Business The $160 Million Question of What Counts as a Suit Everyone saw the same photo. More than $160 million rode on whether they agreed on what it showed. July 17, 2026 Investigation The Last Three Seconds: How Polymarket's Five-Minute Bitcoin Market Got Gamed A Stanford and Singapore study found 821 wallets pocketed about $8.2 million by nudging Bitcoin's price in the final seconds before a five-minute cont July 16, 2026 World Cup 2026 The One Opponent Messi Never Faced: Argentina, England and a Price That Keeps Moving Argentina meet England in the World Cup semifinal in Atlanta, 40 years after the Hand of God. Opta makes it near-even, England 38.9% to Argentina 34.1 July 15, 2026 World Cup 2026 The Real Final Is July 14: What the Money Knows About the World Cup Semifinals Polymarket prices France ~39%, England ~21.6%, Spain ~21.1%, Argentina ~17.3% for the 2026 World Cup - and the money says the real final is the France July 14, 2026 World Cup 2026 World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Odds: Mbappé Leads, Kane Chasing After a 61-Goal Season Live World Cup 2026 Golden Boot prediction-market odds: Mbappé 16%, Kane 12.5%, Oyarzabal 7.5%, Haaland 6%. Who wins top scorer? Full data, analysis a June 10, 2026 World Cup 2026 World Cup 2026 Dark Horses: Traders Give 32% That a First-Time Champion Lifts the Trophy Which World Cup 2026 underdog goes furthest? Prediction markets give a 32% chance a first-time champion wins. Norway, Morocco, Japan and Colombia - li June 10, 2026 World Cup 2026 Will Iran Play at the World Cup? The Market Says 97% - Despite the War, Pulled Tickets and a Visa Standoff Iran's World Cup 2026 participation amid the Israel-Iran war: visa drama, pulled ticket allocations, Trump's posts - and why Polymarket still prices I June 10, 2026 World Cup 2026 Trump and America's World Cup: A 47% Coin-Flip on the USA Opener - and Mexico Outpricing the Hosts Will Trump attend the USA's World Cup opener vs Paraguay at SoFi? Markets say 47.5%. Plus: why traders price Mexico (45%) over USA (32%) as the furthe June 10, 2026 World Cup 2026 France or Spain? Inside the $1.8 Billion World Cup Winner Market Live World Cup 2026 winner odds from Polymarket's $1.8B market: France 16.2%, Spain 16.1%, England 10.7%. Deschamps' farewell, Yamal's hamstring, Mess June 10, 2026 Investigation From Fort Bragg to Tel Aviv: The Polymarket Insider-Trading Arrests That Are Now Reshaping Prediction Markets A US Army soldier indicted over $409K in Maduro-capture bets. An Israeli Air Force major charged for trading the Iran-strike date. A wallet that hijac May 5, 2026 Investigation The Polymarket Ceasefire Resolutions That Both Sides Are Calling Scandals: $203M Iran NO, $20.9M Hezbollah YES Two big April-2026 Polymarket markets settled in opposite directions despite both arguably violating their own rules: US-Iran extended-by-Apr-22 ($203 May 3, 2026