Polymarket United States Prediction Markets

Polymarket United States markets cover the biggest storylines in American politics and policy: presidential and Congressional races, control of the House and Senate, Federal Reserve rate decisions, key economic data and major court rulings. Prices update in real time based on order-book depth.

These markets are most active around decision dates - election nights, Fed meetings, jobs and inflation reports. Trading volume reflects how closely the world watches US events.

43 active markets
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%YesNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%YesNo
$691.1M Volume 07/11
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%YesNo
$692.2M Volume 07/11
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%YesNo
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%YesNo
$1.27B Volume 07/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%YesNo
R Senate, D House39%YesNo
$10.4M Volume 03/11
Which party will win the House in 2026?Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%YesNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%YesNo
$14.2K Volume 03/11
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%YesNo
CATLCATL19%YesNo
$186.9K Volume 30/06
Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
IndonesiaIndonesia99%YesNo
PeruPeru97%YesNo
$8.5K Volume 03/09
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%YesNo
4914%YesNo
$2.9M Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1220%YesNo
1019%YesNo
$10.5K Volume 03/11
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party50%YesNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party50%YesNo
$4M Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%YesNo
618%YesNo
$11.9K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%YesNo
4717%YesNo
$7.2K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%YesNo
221%YesNo
$3.9K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%YesNo
532%YesNo
$6.1K Volume 03/11
How low will Lake Powell drop?How low will Lake Powell drop?
Above 3,510 ft34%YesNo
Below 3,490 ft22%YesNo
$3K Volume 15/04
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%YesNo
226%YesNo
$4.7K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?
931%YesNo
1025%YesNo
$9.6K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?
854%YesNo
921%YesNo
$10.5K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?
12+14%YesNo
713%YesNo
$3.9K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?
1937%YesNo
2033%YesNo
$5.5K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
350%YesNo
421%YesNo
$3.4K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?
340%YesNo
220%YesNo
$2.7K Volume 03/11
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 19026%YesNo
190-19415%YesNo
$289.2K Volume 03/11
Republican VP Nominee 2028Republican VP Nominee 2028
Marco RubioMarco Rubio32%YesNo
Marjorie Taylor GreeneMarjorie Taylor Greene8%YesNo
$36.2K Volume 14/08
How low will Lake Mead drop?How low will Lake Mead drop?
Below 1,028 ft47%YesNo
1,028–1,033 ft20%YesNo
$6.4K Volume 15/04
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Alabama?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Alabama?
171%YesNo
223%YesNo
$4.4K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?
833%YesNo
732%YesNo
$3.9K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?
649%YesNo
521%YesNo
$16.5K Volume 03/11
Criminal charges in Pfizer building structural failure by December 31? Criminal charges in Pfizer building structural failure by December 31?
22%
chance
Yes No
$2.7K Volume 31/12
Democratic VP Nominee 2028Democratic VP Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez11%YesNo
Gretchen WhitmerGretchen Whitmer10%YesNo
$86.8K Volume 10/08
How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
<2229%YesNo
24–2524%YesNo
$689.4K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?
1069%YesNo
918%YesNo
$995 Volume 03/11
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
DeepSeekDeepSeek30%YesNo
ByteDanceByteDance15%YesNo
$76.6K Volume 30/06
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent? LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent?
25%
chance
Yes No
$887 Volume
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Colorado?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Colorado?
539%YesNo
628%YesNo
$2.6K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Minnesota?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Minnesota?
460%YesNo
526%YesNo
$2.5K Volume 03/11
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026? Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?
13%
chance
Yes No
$350 Volume 31/12
US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30? US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?
4%
chance
Yes No
$2.4K Volume 30/09
Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31? Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?
5%
chance
Yes No
$96 Volume 31/12
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
325%YesNo
220%YesNo
$8.9K Volume 27/01
US announces military base in Israel in 2026? US announces military base in Israel in 2026?
18%
chance
Yes No
$484 Volume 31/12
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
224%YesNo
323%YesNo
$7.3K Volume 09/12
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?
12%
chance
Yes No
$9.1K Volume
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US Markets FAQ

Which US markets exist on Polymarket?

Presidential and midterm races, House and Senate control, Fed rate decisions, economic data prints and major legal or policy outcomes. Both binary (Yes/No) and multi-outcome contracts.

What moves prices in US markets?

Polls, debates, economic releases and breaking political news. Odds can shift within minutes of a major headline as traders reprice the order book.

How are the odds set?

There is no house line. Prices come from real buy and sell orders, so each contract's price reflects the market's live consensus probability.

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