Trump Prediction Markets

Trump prediction markets are among Polymarket's most active - tenure, legal proceedings, foreign policy (Ukraine, China, Middle East), domestic policy, and general approval. Volumes exceed hundreds of millions of dollars.

These markets react strongly to every major statement - via Truth Social, interviews, or White House announcements. Real-time news coverage creates trading opportunities.

100 active markets
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
17%
chance
Yes No
$9.8M Volume 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%YesNo
August 25August 2599%YesNo
$2.6M Volume 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%YesNo
October 3153%YesNo
$19.3M Volume 01/01
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$173.7K Volume 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 202765%YesNo
December 31, 202652%YesNo
$114K Volume 01/04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
chance
Yes No
$95.7K Volume 31/12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$82.8K Volume 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%YesNo
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%YesNo
$6.2M Volume 01/01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%YesNo
September 159%YesNo
$670.9K Volume 01/10
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$173.7K Volume 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274.2K Volume 01/09
Fed Decision in October?Fed Decision in October?
No change72%YesNo
25 bps increase25%YesNo
$1.6M Volume 28/10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
14%
chance
Yes No
$22.4K Volume 31/12
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3125%YesNo
October 3115%YesNo
$5.9M Volume 01/01
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3074%YesNo
Switzerland10%YesNo
$19.8K Volume 30/09
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3044%YesNo
August 3115%YesNo
$910K Volume 01/10
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf42%YesNo
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%YesNo
$16.9K Volume 31/12
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3151%YesNo
ChinaChina46%YesNo
$16.4K Volume 31/12
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings21%YesNo
Anna KellyAnna Kelly16%YesNo
$148.5K Volume 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%YesNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin47%YesNo
$20.4K Volume 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%YesNo
CATLCATL19%YesNo
$186.9K Volume 30/06
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2494%YesNo
August 2893%YesNo
$9.2K Volume 01/09
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni22%YesNo
Elon MuskElon Musk11%YesNo
$20.4K Volume 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+87%YesNo
180-19911%YesNo
$10.9K Volume 2 days left
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$7.5K Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
$95.8M Volume 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 3197%YesNo
October 3196%YesNo
$738.9K Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
87%
chance
Yes No
$6.2K Volume 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%YesNo
40+2%YesNo
$5.3K Volume 31/08
Fed Decision in December?Fed Decision in December?
No change61%YesNo
25 bps increase29%YesNo
$1.6M Volume 09/12
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$4K Volume 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
chance
Yes No
$260.1K Volume 31/12
Fed Decision in January?Fed Decision in January?
No change61%YesNo
25 bps increase22%YesNo
$1.6M Volume 27/01
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%YesNo
4914%YesNo
$2.9M Volume 03/11
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil27%YesNo
John Brennan18%YesNo
$389K Volume
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1027%YesNo
1220%YesNo
$10.4K Volume 03/11
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Productivity76%YesNo
Good Morning76%YesNo
$45.5K Volume 5 days left
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
$26K Volume 01/07
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$29.1M Volume 01/01
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God98%YesNo
Ballroom88%YesNo
$4.3K Volume 7 days left
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Green New Scam60%YesNo
Thomas Jefferson54%YesNo
$2.8K Volume 31/08
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Illegal / Illegals69%YesNo
Iran 5+ times63%YesNo
$2.7K Volume 31/08
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
75%
chance
Yes No
$4.7K Volume Ends today
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202758%YesNo
March 31, 202744%YesNo
$6M Volume 01/07
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
554%YesNo
618%YesNo
$11.9K Volume 03/11
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
September 3086%YesNo
September 1581%YesNo
$2.4K Volume 01/10
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28? Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?
19%
chance
Yes No
$3.4K Volume 5 days left
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202729%
$43.4K Volume 01/07
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3127%
$188.8K Volume 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4863%YesNo
4718%YesNo
$7.1K Volume 03/11
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
200+59%YesNo
180-19918%YesNo
$10.9K Volume 5 days left
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%43%YesNo
4.0%32%YesNo
$6.8M Volume 09/12
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3146%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$152K Volume 01/01
Who will Trump publicly praise in August?Who will Trump publicly praise in August?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping55%YesNo
Doug FordDoug Ford43%YesNo
$1.5K Volume 31/08
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
200+53%YesNo
180-19926%YesNo
$10.9K Volume 01/09
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3117%YesNo
October 318%YesNo
$1.1M Volume 31/12
Weed rescheduled by...?Weed rescheduled by...?
September 3048%YesNo
December 3117%YesNo
$1.3K Volume 01/01
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz54%YesNo
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham48%YesNo
$1.3K Volume 31/08
Kash Patel out by...?Kash Patel out by...?
December 3125%YesNo
September 308%YesNo
$1.7M Volume 01/01
What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Communist / Communism91%YesNo
Crime91%YesNo
$1.6K Volume 7 days left
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
chance
Yes No
$1.7K Volume 31/08
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
September 3063%YesNo
September 1132%YesNo
$57.1K Volume 01/10
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland98%YesNo
GermanyGermany39%YesNo
$1.2K Volume 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan SalameRyan Salame23%YesNo
Matt GaetzMatt Gaetz21%YesNo
$428.5K Volume 31/12
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$22.3K Volume 01/01
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%YesNo
August 311%YesNo
$6.3M Volume 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%YesNo
SwitzerlandSwitzerland3%YesNo
$975 Volume 31/12
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
6%
chance
Yes No
$64.7K Volume 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20262%
$55.5K Volume 01/01
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3128%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
$6.4M Volume 01/01
Will Trump launch a coin by ___?Will Trump launch a coin by ___?
December 31, 202613%
March 31, 20266%
$89K Volume 01/01
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
17%
chance
Yes No
$839 Volume 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?
173%YesNo
221%YesNo
$3.9K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
433%YesNo
533%YesNo
$6.1K Volume 03/11
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%YesNo
Rigetti80%YesNo
$173K Volume 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
chance
Yes No
$1.6M Volume 31/12
Insurrection Act invoked by...?Insurrection Act invoked by...?
December 3115%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$1.1M Volume 01/01
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz29%YesNo
Candace OwensCandace Owens28%YesNo
$555 Volume 31/08
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 3112%YesNo
January 311%YesNo
$3.4M Volume 01/01
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India18%YesNo
Israel16%YesNo
$514 Volume 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time39%YesNo
60+33%YesNo
$676.4K Volume 31/12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
chance
Yes No
$10.6M Volume 31/12
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
20%
chance
Yes No
$7.4K Volume 7 days left
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
50%
chance
Yes No
$306.9K Volume 31/12
Trump approval rating on August 28?Trump approval rating on August 28?
38.0–38.435%YesNo
37.5–37.932%YesNo
$408 Volume 5 days left
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
4%
chance
Yes No
$22.4K Volume 30/09
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35%35%25%YesNo
30%30%6%YesNo
$386 Volume 31/12
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?
930%YesNo
1025%YesNo
$9.6K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?
414%YesNo
12+14%YesNo
$3.9K Volume 03/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
342%YesNo
226%YesNo
$4.7K Volume 03/11
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%YesNo
June 263%YesNo
$1.6M Volume 01/09
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
96%
chance
Yes No
$364.3K Volume 31/12
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%YesNo
Likud31%YesNo
$29.3K Volume 28/10
FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?
August 31, 202612%
December 31, 202646%
$3.3K Volume 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?
854%YesNo
921%YesNo
$10.5K Volume 03/11
Will Trump pardon anyone by...?Will Trump pardon anyone by...?
October 3172%YesNo
September 3066%YesNo
$309 Volume 01/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
349%YesNo
421%YesNo
$3.4K Volume 03/11
Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by...?Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by...?
December 3164%YesNo
November 3036%YesNo
$14.7K Volume 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?
1936%YesNo
2033%YesNo
$5.5K Volume 03/11
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%
chance
Yes No
$319 Volume 20/01
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Trump Markets FAQ

Which Trump markets are live now?

Annual approval, specific policy outcomes, legal proceedings, international negotiation outcomes, and senior-appointment decisions.

What moves prices?

Trump statements (especially Truth Social), official White House announcements, court rulings, and Congressional action. Reactions are very fast.

How do I manage risk in Trump markets?

High volatility - build positions gradually, avoid over-concentration in a single market, and check order-book depth before entering.

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