Elections Prediction Markets
Election markets are Polymarket's core - US presidential, party primaries, congressional races, and any major democracy's vote. The 2024 US election markets booked billions in volume.
Pricing blends polls, party finance data, economic indicators and reporting - all distilled into one price. Rich trading ground for both analysts and opinion-driven investors.
78 active markets
J.D. Vance47%YesNo
Marco Rubio20%YesNo
Marine Le Pen32%YesNo
Édouard Philippe25%YesNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%YesNo
Flávio Bolsonaro34%YesNo
JD Vance23%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%YesNo
Gavin Newsom15%YesNo
United Russia (ER)72%YesNo
New People (NL)22%YesNo
Magdalena Andersson91%YesNo
Ulf Kristersson10%YesNo
Darline Graham Nordone65%YesNo
Ralph Norman35%YesNo
August 3197%YesNo
September 3089%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot55%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu26%YesNo
James Talarico (D)51%YesNo
Ken Paxton (R)50%YesNo
Democrats Sweep48%YesNo
R Senate, D House39%YesNo
Eduardo Paes94%YesNo
Douglas Ruas5%YesNo325–33941%YesNo
340–35422%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed (D)61%YesNo
Mike Rogers (R)39%YesNo
Democratic Party89%YesNo
Republican Party12%YesNo
David Morales52%YesNo
Brett Smiley46%YesNo
Scott Jennings25%YesNo
Anna Kelly17%YesNo
Ricardo Ferraço78%YesNo
Lorenzo Pazolini16%YesNo
Helena Foulkes94%YesNo
Dan McKee5%YesNoUnited Russia (ER)99%YesNo
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%YesNo
December 3196%YesNo
September 3093%YesNo
Jean-Luc Mélenchon96%YesNo
Nathalie Arthaud89%YesNo
Bola Tinubu70%YesNo
Peter Obi24%YesNo
Eduardo Braga72%YesNo
Capitão Alberto Neto17%YesNo
Ciro Nogueira43%YesNo
Marcelo Castro21%YesNo
125-12830%YesNo
121-12423%YesNo
Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera57%YesNo
Griselda Martínez Martínez10%YesNo
Alexandre Guimarães41%YesNo
Gaguim40%YesNo
Professora Dorinha57%YesNo
Vicentinho Júnior40%YesNo
Carlos Jordy48%YesNo
Benedita da Silva48%YesNoFlávio Bolsonaro86%YesNoLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%YesNo
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party5%YesNo
Ruth González Silva53%YesNo
Gerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%YesNo
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party3%YesNo
Dr. Fernando Máximo38%YesNo
Sílvia Cristina38%YesNo
5-7%63%YesNo
7-9%25%YesNo
Stephen Lynch50%YesNo
Patrick Roath48%YesNo
December 3149%YesNo
May 311%YesNo
Daniel Gobeil75%YesNo
Caroline Dubé24%YesNoCiro Nogueira48%YesNoMarcelo Castro39%YesNo
Linke58%YesNo
CDU26%YesNo
Wellington Fagundes54%YesNo
Otaviano Pivetta44%YesNo
Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%YesNo
Sergio Sullca Condori28%YesNo
David Crowley (D)81%YesNo
Tom Tiffany (R)20%YesNo
Ashley Moody (R)92%YesNo
Angie Nixon (D)8%YesNo
Sherrod Brown (D)54%YesNo
Jon Husted (R)47%YesNo
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez30%YesNo
Agustín Villarreal Granados26%YesNo
Guilherme Derrite46%YesNo
Simone Tebet31%YesNo
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%YesNo
Jim Priest8%YesNoGuilherme Derrite35%YesNo
Marina Silva32%YesNo
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party5%YesNo
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party3%YesNo
3-5%49%YesNo
5-7%42%YesNo
Humberto Costa45%YesNo
Mendonça Filho34%YesNo
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party5%YesNo
AS49%YesNo
SV26%YesNo
Mike Mazzei79%YesNo
Gentner Drummond21%YesNo
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party5%YesNo
Marine Le Pen84%YesNoJean-Luc Mélenchon50%YesNo
Byron Donalds (R) 80%YesNo
David Jolly (D)22%YesNo
62-6430%YesNo
59-6129%YesNo
Andrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal31%YesNo
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%YesNo
Republican Party95%YesNo
Democratic Party5%YesNo
Obafemi Hamzat87%YesNo
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick6%YesNo
≤4727%YesNo
4914%YesNo
Zukan Helez37%YesNo
Sabina Ćudić27%YesNo
Marília Campos48%YesNo
Carlos Viana13%YesNoCarlos Jordy28%YesNo
Pedro Paulo21%YesNoDarline Graham Nordone78%YesNoRalph Norman22%YesNo
Canceled94%YesNo
François Ruffin1%YesNoÉric Zemmour68%YesNo
Olivier Faure59%YesNo
Carol de Toni45%YesNo
Carlos Bolsonaro39%YesNoElections Markets FAQ
Why are election markets accurate?
They require 'skin in the game' - people put money on their views, filtering out low-quality noise. The larger the volume, the more reliable the price.
Which election markets are live now?
US 2028, Israel (by date), UK and EU local elections, plus party primaries. Follow our page for updates.
How do I price risk in election markets?
Check liquidity (order-book depth), historical volatility, and decision date. Thin-liquidity markets are prone to inefficient pricing.
