Mercados de Previsão de Tecnologia

Os mercados de previsão de tecnologia permitem que você negocie o futuro da indústria - qual modelo de IA será lançado a seguir, se uma empresa atingirá uma meta de resultados ou de lançamento, quem adquire quem e como a corrida da IA se desenrola. Cada preço do Polymarket é uma probabilidade ao vivo, como uma chance de 65% de um produto ser lançado antes do final do ano.

A tecnologia avança com anúncios - keynotes, lançamentos e teleconferências de resultados. Se você acompanha o setor de perto, sua vantagem é conhecer os prazos reais melhor do que a multidão.

100 mercados ativos
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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 3196%SimNão
September 3091%SimNão
$221,8 mil Volume 01/07
Which company has best AI model end of August?Which company has best AI model end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic98%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI2%SimNão
$187 mil Volume 7 dias restantes
Largest Company end of September?Largest Company end of September?
NVIDIANVIDIA93%SimNão
AppleApple5%SimNão
$160,4 mil Volume 30/09
Largest Company end of August?Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIANVIDIA98%SimNão
AppleApple2%SimNão
$160,4 mil Volume 31/08
Gemini 4.0 released by...?Gemini 4.0 released by...?
November 3081%SimNão
October 3157%SimNão
$260,6 mil Volume 01/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
AlibabaAlibaba94%SimNão
Z.aiZ.ai4%SimNão
$22,5 mil Volume 7 dias restantes
Which company has the best AI model end of September?Which company has the best AI model end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic91%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI5%SimNão
$187 mil Volume 30/09
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
October 3186%SimNão
September 3076%SimNão
$12,6 mil Volume 01/10
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by August 3195%SimNão
August 272%SimNão
$14,1 mil Volume 01/09
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%SimNão
CATLCATL20%SimNão
$185,4 mil Volume 30/06
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot52%SimNão
Z.aiZ.ai34%SimNão
$15,7 mil Volume 30/09
GPT-6 released by…?GPT-6 released by…?
December 31, 202670%SimNão
November 30, 202660%SimNão
$1,5 mi Volume 01/01
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
16-1948%SimNão
12-1544%SimNão
$7,5 mil Volume 31/12
OpenAI’s Astra released by…?OpenAI’s Astra released by…?
October 3189%SimNão
September 3076%SimNão
$323 mil Volume 01/11
Best AI model on August 24?Best AI model on August 24?
claude-opus-5-high94%SimNão
claude-opus-5-max4%SimNão
$14,7 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Next Claude Opus released by...?Next Claude Opus released by...?
December 3196%SimNão
October 3182%SimNão
$6,5 mil Volume 01/01
Largest Company end of December 2026?Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIANVIDIA73%SimNão
AppleApple14%SimNão
$160,4 mil Volume 31/12
Best AI model on August 31?Best AI model on August 31?
claude-opus-5-high53%SimNão
claude-opus-5-max46%SimNão
$14,7 mil Volume 31/08
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
OpenAIOpenAI49%SimNão
MoonshotMoonshot25%SimNão
$6,1 mil Volume 30/09
2nd Largest Company end of August?2nd Largest Company end of August?
AppleApple95%SimNão
AlphabetAlphabet5%SimNão
$6,4 mil Volume 31/08
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
AnthropicAnthropic70%SimNão
xAIxAI12%SimNão
$187 mil Volume 31/12
SSI public model released by…?SSI public model released by…?
October 3160%SimNão
September 3038%SimNão
$48,2 mil Volume 01/11
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 155%SimNão
October 5–October 1115%SimNão
$11 mil Volume 01/11
3rd Largest Company end of August?3rd Largest Company end of August?
AlphabetAlphabet95%SimNão
AppleApple3%SimNão
$5 mil Volume 31/08
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?
MoonshotMoonshot79%SimNão
AlibabaAlibaba8%SimNão
$4,9 mil Volume 31/08
Which company has the best AI model end of October?Which company has the best AI model end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic86%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI5%SimNão
$187 mil Volume 31/10
GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
$6.00-$6.5023%SimNão
$5.50-$6.0020%SimNão
$8,4 mil Volume 31/12
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Z.aiZ.ai59%SimNão
MoonshotMoonshot35%SimNão
$15,7 mil Volume 31/08
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?
OpenAIOpenAI84%SimNão
Black Forest LabsBlack Forest Labs30%SimNão
$5,2 mil Volume 31/10
Will Claude go down on __ days in August?Will Claude go down on __ days in August?
8-1084%SimNão
5-77%SimNão
$4,1 mil Volume 31/08
Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic96%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI2%SimNão
$8,1 mil Volume 31/08
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba67%SimNão
Z.aiZ.ai16%SimNão
$22,5 mil Volume 30/09
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by September 3069%SimNão
On or prior to September 15%SimNão
$14,1 mil Volume 01/10
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
50%+80%SimNão
55%+53%SimNão
$44 mil Volume 31/12
Second-best AI Lab end of August?Second-best AI Lab end of August?
GoogleGoogle83%SimNão
MetaMeta10%SimNão
$3,8 mil Volume 31/08
Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
50%+71%SimNão
55%+47%SimNão
$43,6 mil Volume 31/12
Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+75%SimNão
50%+56%SimNão
$40,2 mil Volume 31/12
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
83%
chance
Sim Não
$187 mil Volume 31/12
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot56%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI35%SimNão
$3,5 mil Volume 30/09
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
August 311%
December 315%
$127,8 mil Volume 01/01
Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic84%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI14%SimNão
$8,1 mil Volume 30/09
Longest GitHub critical incident in August?Longest GitHub critical incident in August?
6-12 hours90%SimNão
<1 hour6%SimNão
$2,3 mil Volume 31/08
#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
MetaMeta47%SimNão
GoogleGoogle30%SimNão
$4,5 mil Volume 30/09
#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
ChatGPTChatGPT61%SimNão
7 Brew Coffee7 Brew Coffee26%SimNão
$2,2 mil Volume 5 dias restantes
Best AI model on September 7?Best AI model on September 7?
claude-opus-5-high51%SimNão
claude-opus-5-max37%SimNão
$14,7 mil Volume 07/09
GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?
$6.50+39%SimNão
$6.00-$6.5027%SimNão
$8,4 mil Volume 31/10
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
ShadowrocketShadowrocket94%SimNão
HotSchedulesHotSchedules7%SimNão
$1,9 mil Volume 5 dias restantes
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
GoogleGoogle29%SimNão
MetaMeta19%SimNão
$4,5 mil Volume 31/10
Quais empresas serão adquiridas antes de 2027?Quais empresas serão adquiridas antes de 2027?
PayPalPayPal46%SimNão
MGM ResortsMGM Resorts34%SimNão
$18,2 mi Volume 31/12
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic78%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI21%SimNão
$8,1 mil Volume 31/10
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 3042%SimNão
August 3111%SimNão
$1,7 mil Volume 01/10
GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?
$1.00-$1.2561%SimNão
$0.75-$1.0024%SimNão
$1,7 mil Volume 31/10
GitHub.com critical incident by...?GitHub.com critical incident by...?
September 1586%SimNão
September 3081%SimNão
$1,7 mil Volume 30/09
GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?
$6.50-$7.0037%SimNão
$5.50-$6.0022%SimNão
$8,4 mil Volume 30/09
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 202744%SimNão
June 30, 202732%SimNão
$1,1 mi Volume 01/01
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?
GoogleGoogle88%SimNão
AlibabaAlibaba6%SimNão
$2,4 mil Volume 30/09
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
MetaMeta35%SimNão
GoogleGoogle27%SimNão
$2,5 mil Volume 31/10
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
October 3168%SimNão
September 3036%SimNão
$1,1 mi Volume 01/11
GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?
$4.50-$5.0037%SimNão
$5.00-$5.5025%SimNão
$2,9 mil Volume 31/08
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
45%+80%SimNão
40%+78%SimNão
$41,1 mil Volume 31/12
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Z.aiZ.ai34%SimNão
MoonshotMoonshot28%SimNão
$15,7 mil Volume 31/10
GTA 6 launch postponed again? GTA 6 launch postponed again?
10%
chance
Sim Não
$705,6 mil Volume 19/11
#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
HotSchedulesHotSchedules94%SimNão
ShadowrocketShadowrocket6%SimNão
$1,5 mil Volume 5 dias restantes
Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+94%SimNão
50%+61%SimNão
$20,1 mil Volume 31/12
What will Elon post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Elon post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Tesla91%SimNão
Texas58%SimNão
$3,5 mil Volume 7 dias restantes
OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
1480+74%SimNão
1490+28%SimNão
$59,5 mil Volume
GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?
$4.50-$5.0028%SimNão
$4.00-$4.5027%SimNão
$2,9 mil Volume 31/10
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3%
chance
Sim Não
$1,2 mil Volume 31/12
ChatGPT Outage by....?ChatGPT Outage by....?
August 2256%
August 3143%
$2,4 mil Volume 01/09
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
86%
chance
Sim Não
$283,6 mil Volume 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?
$2.75-$3.0026%SimNão
$3.00+24%SimNão
$2,6 mil Volume 31/10
Third-best AI Lab end of August?Third-best AI Lab end of August?
MetaMeta77%SimNão
GoogleGoogle11%SimNão
$3 mil Volume 31/08
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?
$0.45-$0.5035%SimNão
$0.50-$0.5525%SimNão
$1,6 mil Volume 31/10
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?
OpenAIOpenAI97%SimNão
Microsoft AIMicrosoft AI1%SimNão
$5,2 mil Volume 31/08
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202714%
$48 mil Volume 31/12
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AppleApple47%SimNão
AlphabetAlphabet37%SimNão
$6,4 mil Volume 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?
$2.75-$3.0037%SimNão
$3.00-$3.2526%SimNão
$2,6 mil Volume 31/08
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of August?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic94%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI2%SimNão
$799 Volume 31/08
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
WorkhorseWorkhorse24%SimNão
Beyond MeatBeyond Meat13%SimNão
$227,6 mil Volume 31/12
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+54%SimNão
60%+27%SimNão
$22 mil Volume 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%SimNão
Rigetti78%SimNão
$173 mil Volume 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?
$2.50-$2.7526%SimNão
$2.75-$3.0019%SimNão
$2,6 mil Volume 30/09
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic74%SimNão
GoogleGoogle11%SimNão
$940 Volume 31/10
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic67%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI33%SimNão
$763 Volume 30/09
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+89%SimNão
1490+71%SimNão
$109,8 mil Volume
Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
1500+72%SimNão
1505+54%SimNão
$629 Volume 31/12
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Bad BunnyBad Bunny13%SimNão
Erling HaalandErling Haaland12%SimNão
$159,8 mil Volume 31/12
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba44%SimNão
MoonshotMoonshot26%SimNão
$1,3 mil Volume 30/09
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
50%+90%SimNão
45%+89%SimNão
$587 Volume 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?
$0.50-$0.5549%SimNão
$0.45-$0.5029%SimNão
$1,6 mil Volume 31/08
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by...?Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by...?
August 3115%
September 3054%
$564 Volume 01/10
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
↑ 152047%SimNão
↑ 153027%SimNão
$735 Volume 31/12
#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?
Erling HaalandErling Haaland19%SimNão
Bad BunnyBad Bunny14%SimNão
$88,9 mil Volume 31/12
#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)
MoonshotMoonshot50%SimNão
GoogleGoogle43%SimNão
$2,5 mil Volume 31/08
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?
2%
chance
Sim Não
$52,7 mil Volume 31/08
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
MoonshotMoonshot37%SimNão
Z.aiZ.ai29%SimNão
$1 mil Volume 31/10
Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+88%SimNão
60%+64%SimNão
$66,8 mil Volume 31/12
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
GoogleGoogle74%SimNão
OpenAIOpenAI10%SimNão
$2,4 mil Volume 31/10
What will Anthropic's public ticker be?What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
$ANTH41%SimNão
$ANT10%SimNão
$77,4 mil Volume 31/12
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?
OpenAIOpenAI67%SimNão
AnthropicAnthropic33%SimNão
$552 Volume 30/09
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FAQ dos Mercados de Tecnologia

Quais mercados de tecnologia estão no Polymarket?

Lançamentos de modelos de IA e produtos, resultados e marcos das Big Techs, IPOs e aquisições, e a corrida mais ampla da IA (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic e mais).

Como os mercados de tecnologia são resolvidos?

Com base em um evento público claro até uma data determinada - um lançamento oficial, um relatório de resultados ou um acordo confirmado. Leia as regras de resolução para o gatilho exato.

Onde está a vantagem nos mercados de tecnologia?

Conhecer datas reais de lançamento e padrões de lançamento. As empresas frequentemente perdem prazos autoimpostos, então prazos realistas superam a empolgação.

Os mercados de 5 minutos ou de hype valem a pena negociar?

Os mercados de hype de curto prazo são dominados por traders rápidos e oscilações de notícias. Iniciantes se saem melhor em mercados de marcos mais longos onde a pesquisa compensa.

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