Marchés de Prédiction Technologique

Les marchés de prédiction technologique vous permettent de trader l'avenir du secteur - quel modèle IA sortira ensuite, si une entreprise atteindra un objectif de résultats ou de lancement, qui rachète qui, et comment se joue la course à l'IA. Chaque prix sur Polymarket est une probabilité en direct, par exemple une probabilité de 65 % qu'un produit sorte avant la fin de l'année.

La tech avance au rythme des annonces : keynotes, sorties et conférences de résultats. Si vous suivez le secteur de près, votre avantage est de connaître les vrais calendriers mieux que le marché.

100 marchés actifs
Trier
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 3196%OuiNon
September 3091%OuiNon
$221,8 k Vol 01/07
Which company has best AI model end of August?Which company has best AI model end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic98%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI2%OuiNon
$187 k Vol 7 jours restants
Largest Company end of September?Largest Company end of September?
NVIDIANVIDIA93%OuiNon
AppleApple5%OuiNon
$160,4 k Vol 30/09
Largest Company end of August?Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIANVIDIA98%OuiNon
AppleApple2%OuiNon
$160,4 k Vol 31/08
Gemini 4.0 released by...?Gemini 4.0 released by...?
November 3081%OuiNon
October 3157%OuiNon
$260,6 k Vol 01/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
AlibabaAlibaba94%OuiNon
Z.aiZ.ai4%OuiNon
$22,5 k Vol 7 jours restants
Which company has the best AI model end of September?Which company has the best AI model end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic91%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI5%OuiNon
$187 k Vol 30/09
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
October 3186%OuiNon
September 3076%OuiNon
$12,6 k Vol 01/10
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by August 3195%OuiNon
August 272%OuiNon
$14,1 k Vol 01/09
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%OuiNon
CATLCATL20%OuiNon
$185,4 k Vol 30/06
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot52%OuiNon
Z.aiZ.ai34%OuiNon
$15,7 k Vol 30/09
GPT-6 released by…?GPT-6 released by…?
December 31, 202670%OuiNon
November 30, 202660%OuiNon
$1,5 M Vol 01/01
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
16-1948%OuiNon
12-1544%OuiNon
$7,5 k Vol 31/12
OpenAI’s Astra released by…?OpenAI’s Astra released by…?
October 3189%OuiNon
September 3076%OuiNon
$323 k Vol 01/11
Best AI model on August 24?Best AI model on August 24?
claude-opus-5-high94%OuiNon
claude-opus-5-max4%OuiNon
$14,7 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Next Claude Opus released by...?Next Claude Opus released by...?
December 3196%OuiNon
October 3182%OuiNon
$6,5 k Vol 01/01
Largest Company end of December 2026?Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIANVIDIA73%OuiNon
AppleApple14%OuiNon
$160,4 k Vol 31/12
Best AI model on August 31?Best AI model on August 31?
claude-opus-5-high53%OuiNon
claude-opus-5-max46%OuiNon
$14,7 k Vol 31/08
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
OpenAIOpenAI49%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot25%OuiNon
$6,1 k Vol 30/09
2nd Largest Company end of August?2nd Largest Company end of August?
AppleApple95%OuiNon
AlphabetAlphabet5%OuiNon
$6,4 k Vol 31/08
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
AnthropicAnthropic70%OuiNon
xAIxAI12%OuiNon
$187 k Vol 31/12
SSI public model released by…?SSI public model released by…?
October 3160%OuiNon
September 3038%OuiNon
$48,2 k Vol 01/11
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 155%OuiNon
October 5–October 1115%OuiNon
$11 k Vol 01/11
3rd Largest Company end of August?3rd Largest Company end of August?
AlphabetAlphabet95%OuiNon
AppleApple3%OuiNon
$5 k Vol 31/08
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?
MoonshotMoonshot79%OuiNon
AlibabaAlibaba8%OuiNon
$4,9 k Vol 31/08
Which company has the best AI model end of October?Which company has the best AI model end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic86%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI5%OuiNon
$187 k Vol 31/10
GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
$6.00-$6.5023%OuiNon
$5.50-$6.0020%OuiNon
$8,4 k Vol 31/12
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Z.aiZ.ai59%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot35%OuiNon
$15,7 k Vol 31/08
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?
OpenAIOpenAI84%OuiNon
Black Forest LabsBlack Forest Labs30%OuiNon
$5,2 k Vol 31/10
Will Claude go down on __ days in August?Will Claude go down on __ days in August?
8-1084%OuiNon
5-77%OuiNon
$4,1 k Vol 31/08
Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic96%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI2%OuiNon
$8,1 k Vol 31/08
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba67%OuiNon
Z.aiZ.ai16%OuiNon
$22,5 k Vol 30/09
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by September 3069%OuiNon
On or prior to September 15%OuiNon
$14,1 k Vol 01/10
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
50%+80%OuiNon
55%+53%OuiNon
$44 k Vol 31/12
Second-best AI Lab end of August?Second-best AI Lab end of August?
GoogleGoogle83%OuiNon
MetaMeta10%OuiNon
$3,8 k Vol 31/08
Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
50%+71%OuiNon
55%+47%OuiNon
$43,6 k Vol 31/12
Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+75%OuiNon
50%+56%OuiNon
$40,2 k Vol 31/12
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
83%
de chance
Oui Non
$187 k Vol 31/12
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot56%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI35%OuiNon
$3,5 k Vol 30/09
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
August 311%
December 315%
$127,8 k Vol 01/01
Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic84%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI14%OuiNon
$8,1 k Vol 30/09
Longest GitHub critical incident in August?Longest GitHub critical incident in August?
6-12 hours90%OuiNon
<1 hour6%OuiNon
$2,3 k Vol 31/08
#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
MetaMeta47%OuiNon
GoogleGoogle30%OuiNon
$4,5 k Vol 30/09
#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
ChatGPTChatGPT61%OuiNon
7 Brew Coffee7 Brew Coffee26%OuiNon
$2,2 k Vol 5 jours restants
Best AI model on September 7?Best AI model on September 7?
claude-opus-5-high51%OuiNon
claude-opus-5-max37%OuiNon
$14,7 k Vol 07/09
GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?
$6.50+39%OuiNon
$6.00-$6.5027%OuiNon
$8,4 k Vol 31/10
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
ShadowrocketShadowrocket94%OuiNon
HotSchedulesHotSchedules7%OuiNon
$1,9 k Vol 5 jours restants
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
GoogleGoogle29%OuiNon
MetaMeta19%OuiNon
$4,5 k Vol 31/10
Quelles entreprises seront acquises avant 2027 ?Quelles entreprises seront acquises avant 2027 ?
PayPalPayPal46%OuiNon
MGM ResortsMGM Resorts34%OuiNon
$18,2 M Vol 31/12
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic78%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI21%OuiNon
$8,1 k Vol 31/10
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 3042%OuiNon
August 3111%OuiNon
$1,7 k Vol 01/10
GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?
$1.00-$1.2561%OuiNon
$0.75-$1.0024%OuiNon
$1,7 k Vol 31/10
GitHub.com critical incident by...?GitHub.com critical incident by...?
September 1586%OuiNon
September 3081%OuiNon
$1,7 k Vol 30/09
GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?
$6.50-$7.0037%OuiNon
$5.50-$6.0022%OuiNon
$8,4 k Vol 30/09
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 202744%OuiNon
June 30, 202732%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 01/01
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?
GoogleGoogle88%OuiNon
AlibabaAlibaba6%OuiNon
$2,4 k Vol 30/09
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
MetaMeta35%OuiNon
GoogleGoogle27%OuiNon
$2,5 k Vol 31/10
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
October 3168%OuiNon
September 3036%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 01/11
GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?
$4.50-$5.0037%OuiNon
$5.00-$5.5025%OuiNon
$2,9 k Vol 31/08
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
45%+80%OuiNon
40%+78%OuiNon
$41,1 k Vol 31/12
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Z.aiZ.ai34%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot28%OuiNon
$15,7 k Vol 31/10
GTA 6 launch postponed again? GTA 6 launch postponed again?
10%
de chance
Oui Non
$705,6 k Vol 19/11
#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
HotSchedulesHotSchedules94%OuiNon
ShadowrocketShadowrocket6%OuiNon
$1,5 k Vol 5 jours restants
Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+94%OuiNon
50%+61%OuiNon
$20,1 k Vol 31/12
What will Elon post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Elon post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Tesla91%OuiNon
Texas58%OuiNon
$3,5 k Vol 7 jours restants
OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
1480+74%OuiNon
1490+28%OuiNon
$59,5 k Vol
GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?
$4.50-$5.0028%OuiNon
$4.00-$4.5027%OuiNon
$2,9 k Vol 31/10
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,2 k Vol 31/12
ChatGPT Outage by....?ChatGPT Outage by....?
August 2256%
August 3143%
$2,4 k Vol 01/09
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
86%
de chance
Oui Non
$283,6 k Vol 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?
$2.75-$3.0026%OuiNon
$3.00+24%OuiNon
$2,6 k Vol 31/10
Third-best AI Lab end of August?Third-best AI Lab end of August?
MetaMeta77%OuiNon
GoogleGoogle11%OuiNon
$3 k Vol 31/08
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?
$0.45-$0.5035%OuiNon
$0.50-$0.5525%OuiNon
$1,6 k Vol 31/10
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?
OpenAIOpenAI97%OuiNon
Microsoft AIMicrosoft AI1%OuiNon
$5,2 k Vol 31/08
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202714%
$48 k Vol 31/12
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AppleApple47%OuiNon
AlphabetAlphabet37%OuiNon
$6,4 k Vol 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?
$2.75-$3.0037%OuiNon
$3.00-$3.2526%OuiNon
$2,6 k Vol 31/08
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of August?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic94%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI2%OuiNon
$799 Vol 31/08
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
WorkhorseWorkhorse24%OuiNon
Beyond MeatBeyond Meat13%OuiNon
$227,6 k Vol 31/12
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+54%OuiNon
60%+27%OuiNon
$22 k Vol 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%OuiNon
Rigetti78%OuiNon
$173 k Vol 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?GPU rental prices (H100) end of September?
$2.50-$2.7526%OuiNon
$2.75-$3.0019%OuiNon
$2,6 k Vol 30/09
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic74%OuiNon
GoogleGoogle11%OuiNon
$940 Vol 31/10
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic67%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI33%OuiNon
$763 Vol 30/09
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+89%OuiNon
1490+71%OuiNon
$109,8 k Vol
Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
1500+72%OuiNon
1505+54%OuiNon
$629 Vol 31/12
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Bad BunnyBad Bunny13%OuiNon
Erling HaalandErling Haaland12%OuiNon
$159,8 k Vol 31/12
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba44%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot26%OuiNon
$1,3 k Vol 30/09
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
50%+90%OuiNon
45%+89%OuiNon
$587 Vol 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?
$0.50-$0.5549%OuiNon
$0.45-$0.5029%OuiNon
$1,6 k Vol 31/08
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by...?Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by...?
August 3115%
September 3054%
$564 Vol 01/10
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
↑ 152047%OuiNon
↑ 153027%OuiNon
$735 Vol 31/12
#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?
Erling HaalandErling Haaland19%OuiNon
Bad BunnyBad Bunny14%OuiNon
$88,9 k Vol 31/12
#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)
MoonshotMoonshot50%OuiNon
GoogleGoogle43%OuiNon
$2,5 k Vol 31/08
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?
2%
de chance
Oui Non
$52,7 k Vol 31/08
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
MoonshotMoonshot37%OuiNon
Z.aiZ.ai29%OuiNon
$1 k Vol 31/10
Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+88%OuiNon
60%+64%OuiNon
$66,8 k Vol 31/12
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
GoogleGoogle74%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI10%OuiNon
$2,4 k Vol 31/10
What will Anthropic's public ticker be?What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
$ANTH41%OuiNon
$ANT10%OuiNon
$77,4 k Vol 31/12
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?
OpenAIOpenAI67%OuiNon
AnthropicAnthropic33%OuiNon
$552 Vol 30/09
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FAQ des Marchés Technologiques

Quels marchés technologiques sont sur Polymarket ?

Sorties de modèles IA et de produits, résultats et jalons des géants de la tech, IPO et acquisitions, et la course à l'IA au sens large (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic et plus).

Comment les marchés technologiques se résolvent-ils ?

Sur la base d'un événement public clair, à une date donnée - un lancement officiel, un rapport de résultats ou un accord confirmé. Lisez les règles de résolution pour le déclencheur exact.

Où est l'avantage dans les marchés technologiques ?

Connaître les vraies dates de sortie et les habitudes de lancement. Les entreprises manquent régulièrement les délais qu'elles se fixent, donc un calendrier réaliste bat l'engouement.

Les marchés de 5 minutes ou de hype valent-ils la peine d'être tradés ?

Les marchés de hype à court terme sont dominés par des traders rapides et des fluctuations d'actualités. Les débutants s'en sortent mieux sur des marchés de jalons plus longs où la recherche porte ses fruits.

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