Athletic Club vs. Grêmio Novorizontino

Grêmio Novorizontino enters the Série B clash as the slight favorite at 41.5% implied probability, ahead of the draw at 31.5% and Athletic Club at 26.5%, reflecting its stronger standing and recent momentum. Sitting fourth with 37 points from 23 matches, Novorizontino arrives after a convincing 3-0 home win over América-MG and holds a superior goal difference alongside 35 goals scored. Athletic, ninth with 34 points, comes off a 0-2 home defeat to CRB and trails in the race for G6 promotion spots. Novorizontino has won all three prior meetings, including a 2-1 result earlier this season. Athletic faces absences including Philipe Sampaio and Ronaldo Tavares, while both sides treat the fixture as a six-point encounter at Estádio Joaquim Portugal.