MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano

Maccabi Tel Aviv host FC Lugano in the UEFA Conference League play-off second leg trailing 1-2 on aggregate after the first-leg defeat in Switzerland. Lugano's strong recent form, including a perfect Swiss Super League start with high-scoring wins and consistent European progress, underpins their competitive 31.5% implied probability for victory. Maccabi's 41.5% edge reflects their attacking output in qualifiers, including a 3-1 recovery win over CSKA Sofia, despite the bruising aggregate exit from the Europa League and injuries such as striker Ion Nicolaescu. The 27.5% draw price captures the tight two-legged dynamics, where a Maccabi win or high-scoring draw could still advance them while Lugano's defensive organization and counter threat remain decisive factors.