This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
October Meeting
$494.9K Volume
41%
September Meeting
$902.9K Volume
32%
Resolved 3
April Meeting
$131.3K Volume
No
June Meeting
$45.8K Volume
No
July Meeting
$782.9K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed rate hike by?
The field is wide open: October Meeting tops it at just 41%, with September Meeting close behind at 31%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Fed rate hike by?
No strong consensus yet: October Meeting tops the implied probabilities at just 41%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Fed rate hike by market resolve?
The market runs until 29 Oct 2026 (66 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Fed rate hike by?
Traders have put $14.6K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Fed rate hike by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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