This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 17%, with No at 84%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 17%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
$4.7K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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