This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as “critical” and lists Git Operations among the incident's affected components ones the incident is marked “Resolved”. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only an impact of Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. “Degraded Performance,” “Partial Outage,” or “Major Outage”) will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time.
Incidents that do not list Git Operations among their affected components, including incidents that list no affected components, will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
August 31
$546 Volume
3%
September 30
$962 Volume
34%
October 31
$1.5K Volume
39%
Resolution Source: www.githubstatus.com
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for GitHub Git Operations critical incident by?
Even the leader is cheap - September 30 trades at 29%, October 31 at 27%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for GitHub Git Operations critical incident by?
Right now the market's best guess is September 30 at 29% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the GitHub Git Operations critical incident by market resolve?
Mark 30 Sep 2026 (37 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on GitHub Git Operations critical incident by?
Traders have put $3K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade GitHub Git Operations critical incident by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
September 3092%YesNo
September 1584%YesNo
6-12 hours90%YesNo
12+ hours8%YesNo
6-12 hours36%YesNo
3-6 hours22%YesNo
