This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
21°C or below
$2.2K Volume
1%
22°C
$178 Volume
1%
23°C
$710 Volume
1%
24°C
$799 Volume
1%
25°C
$1K Volume
1%
26°C
$893 Volume
2%
27°C
$1.6K Volume
2%
28°C
$1.3K Volume
94%
29°C
$1.3K Volume
1%
30°C
$278 Volume
1%
31°C or higher
$563 Volume
1%
Resolution Source: www.weather.gov
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
At 97%, 28°C has pulled far clear of 26°C (2%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Traders price 28°C at a 97% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 25 Aug 2026 (1 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Traders have put $11.5K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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