This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
August 31
$10.2K Volume
14%
September 15
$649 Volume
57%
September 30
$4.9K Volume
58%
October 31
$194 Volume
88%
December 31
$4.4K Volume
88%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by?
December 31 dominates the field at 86%; the nearest challenger, October 31, trades at just 78%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by?
Traders price December 31 at a 86% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by?
$5.9K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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