This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
December 31
$936.5K Volume
3%
Resolved 3
April 30
$14.8K Volume
No
June 30
$1M Volume
No
July 31
$5K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Satoshi's identity be proven by?
Yes is the outsider here at 3%, while No trades at 97%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Satoshi's identity be proven by?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 3% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Satoshi's identity be proven by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Satoshi's identity be proven by?
Total turnover stands at $2M. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Satoshi's identity be proven by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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