France · Politics

SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?

View on Polymarket

$7.2K Volume

12/10/2026 23:59

View on Polymarket

View on Official Site Trade with real money on Polymarket →

<56

$477 Volume

56-58

$1.9K Volume

14%

59-61

$2.7K Volume

29%

62-64

$720 Volume

32%

65-67

$509 Volume

15%

68-70

$389 Volume

71+

$494 Volume

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.

This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER) as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.

The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).

A group will qualify as the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER) if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.

If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?

The field is wide open: 62-64 tops it at just 30%, with 59-61 close behind at 29%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.

What do traders predict for SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?

No strong consensus yet: 62-64 tops the implied probabilities at just 30%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.

When does the SER Seat Count after French Senate Election market resolve?

The market runs until 12 Oct 2026 (50 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.

How much money is trading on SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?

Total turnover stands at $7.2K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.

How can I trade SER Seat Count after French Senate Election on Polymarket?

Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.