This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Weather
· Drought
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
0 states
74%
1-2 states
75%
3-4 states
78%
5-6 states
81%
7-9 states
75%
10 or more states
75%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
Even the leader is cheap - 5-6 states trades at 43%, 3-4 states at 42%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
Right now the market's best guess is 5-6 states at 43% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 27 Aug 2026 (3 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
Total turnover stands at $349. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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