banks · Economy

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

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$84 Volume

31/12/2026 23:59

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Past

Jul 31 Jun 30 Jun 30 May 31 May 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 Feb 28 Jan 31 Dec 31, 2025

Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Money currently favors Yes at 67%, with No holding 33%. The gap is meaningful yet far from safe; prices update in real time.

What do traders predict for US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

The market makes Yes the favorite at 67%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.

When does the US bank failure by December 31, 2026 market resolve?

Mark 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.

How much money is trading on US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Traders have put $84 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.

How can I trade US bank failure by December 31, 2026 on Polymarket?

Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.