This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.
This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Under 1.5
$518 Volume
1%
1.5–2.0
$683 Volume
5%
2.0–2.25
$1.3K Volume
19%
2.25–2.5
$1.8K Volume
20%
Over 2.5
$2.8K Volume
64%
Resolution Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
It's a genuine race: Over 2.5 edges the field at 64%, barely ahead of 2.25–2.5 at 20%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Traders give Over 2.5 a 64% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Apr 2027 (219 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Total turnover stands at $7K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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