Music · Culture

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

$165.6K Volume
31/12/2026 00:00
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Mariah Carey
$2.9K Volume
89%
Morgan Wallen
$352 Volume
41%
Kendrick Lamar
$4.6K Volume
74%
Peso Pluma
87%
Post Malone
$357 Volume
32%
Sabrina Carpenter
$492 Volume
67%
The Weeknd
$5.2K Volume
33%
Luke Combs
$2.9K Volume
15%
Playboi Carti
$7.9K Volume
35%
Tyler, The Creator
$589 Volume
19%
Billie Eilish
$40.7K Volume
24%
Frank Ocean
$9.1K Volume
16%
Doja Cat
$11.1K Volume
15%
Travis Scott
$5.4K Volume
16%
SZA
$570 Volume
29%
A$AP Rocky
$2.1K Volume
7%
Future
$7K Volume
10%
Rihanna
$1.2K Volume
10%
Ed Sheeran
$674 Volume
5%
Jack Harlow
$9K Volume
26%
Zach Bryan
$1K Volume
4%
Lil Baby
$1K Volume
11%
Kanye West
$866 Volume
5%
Resolved 5
Ariana Grande
$4.2K Volume
Yes
Bad Bunny
$29.6K Volume
Yes
Drake
$9K Volume
Yes
Harry Styles
$6.8K Volume
Yes
Olivia Rodrigo
$949 Volume
Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Mariah Carey leads the field at 84%, with Peso Pluma next at 51%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.
What do traders predict for Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
The market makes Mariah Carey the favorite at 84%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Traders have put $165.6K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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