This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
DeepSeek
· Business
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? (Resolved)
Anthropic
$258K Volume
99%
OpenAI
$455.5K Volume
1%
Mistral
$16.2K Volume
1%
Z.ai
$20.6K Volume
1%
DeepSeek
$287.5K Volume
1%
xAI
$594.4K Volume
1%
Meta
$31K Volume
1%
Alibaba
$20.9K Volume
1%
Nvidia
$10.2K Volume
1%
Baidu
$12.3K Volume
1%
Meituan
$5.3K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
When does the Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? (Resolved) market resolve?
Trading here has ended - the market resolved and was settled under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? (Resolved)?
Total turnover stands at $1.7M. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
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