This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
The market prices Yes at only 24%, with No at 77%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 24%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026 market resolve?
Mark 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Traders have put $448.5K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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