If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
December 31, 2026
$935.6K Volume
5%
June 30, 2027
$1 Volume
84%
December 31, 2027
$81 Volume
85%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by?
The money is on December 31, 2027 at 68%; June 30, 2027 follows at 54%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by?
The market makes December 31, 2027 the favorite at 68%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by market resolve?
Mark 1 Jan 2028 (495 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by?
Traders have put $935.7K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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