This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Past
December 31
$803.2K Volume
4%
Resolved 2
March 31
$4.6M Volume
No
April 30
$2.4M Volume
No
Analysis & News
Will Iran Play at the World Cup? The Market Says 97% - Despite the War, Pulled Tickets and a Visa Standoff
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will the US officially declare war on Iran by?
Yes is the outsider here at 4%, while No trades at 96%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will the US officially declare war on Iran by?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 4% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will the US officially declare war on Iran by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Jan 2027 (129 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will the US officially declare war on Iran by?
Total turnover stands at $306. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will the US officially declare war on Iran by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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