Marchés de Prédiction Électorale

Les marchés électoraux sont au cœur de Polymarket : élections présidentielles américaines, primaires de partis, courses au Congrès, et tout vote majeur dans une démocratie. Les marchés électoraux américains de 2024 ont enregistré des milliards en volume.

Les prix combinent des sondages, des données de financement des partis, des indicateurs économiques et des rapports, le tout distillé en un seul prix. Un terrain de trading riche pour les analystes et les investisseurs guidés par l'opinion.

80 marchés actifs
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Élections présidentielles au BrésilÉlections présidentielles au Brésil
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%OuiNon
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro33%OuiNon
$132,1 M Vol 04/10
Gagnant de l'Élection Présidentielle 2028Gagnant de l'Élection Présidentielle 2028
JD VanceJD Vance23%OuiNon
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%OuiNon
$692,1 M Vol 07/11
Prochaine Élection Présidentielle FrançaiseProchaine Élection Présidentielle Française
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%OuiNon
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%OuiNon
$121,3 M Vol 30/04
Candidat Démocrate à la Présidence 2028Candidat Démocrate à la Présidence 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez23%OuiNon
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%OuiNon
$1,3 Md Vol 07/11
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson90%OuiNon
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%OuiNon
$4 M Vol 13/09
Candidat à la présidentielle républicaine 2028Candidat à la présidentielle républicaine 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%OuiNon
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%OuiNon
$690,7 M Vol 07/11
Quel parti obtiendra le plus de sièges aux élections parlementaires russes ?Quel parti obtiendra le plus de sièges aux élections parlementaires russes ?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)71%OuiNon
New People (NL)New People (NL)23%OuiNon
$21,7 M Vol 20/09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%OuiNon
September 3089%OuiNon
$26,3 M Vol 31/08
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%OuiNon
R Senate, D House39%OuiNon
$10,4 M Vol 03/11
Qui sera le prochain Premier ministre d'Israël après les prochaines élections ?Qui sera le prochain Premier ministre d'Israël après les prochaines élections ?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%OuiNon
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%OuiNon
$33 M Vol 31/12
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$128,2 k Vol 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%OuiNon
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%OuiNon
$419,1 k Vol 05/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%OuiNon
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)1%OuiNon
$1,4 M Vol 13/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%OuiNon
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%OuiNon
$5,2 M Vol 04/10
Quel parti remportera la Chambre des représentants en 2026 ?Quel parti remportera la Chambre des représentants en 2026 ?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%OuiNon
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%OuiNon
$20,6 k Vol 03/11
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33942%OuiNon
340–35422%OuiNon
$211,2 k Vol 20/09
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%OuiNon
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)49%OuiNon
$870,8 k Vol 03/11
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings28%OuiNon
Anna KellyAnna Kelly16%OuiNon
$147,5 k Vol 31/12
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)62%OuiNon
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%OuiNon
$586,4 k Vol 03/11
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%OuiNon
September 3093%OuiNon
$356,8 k Vol 01/01
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%OuiNon
Brett Smiley47%OuiNon
$22,4 k Vol 09/09
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva52%OuiNon
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%OuiNon
$20,9 k Vol 06/06
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Edin FortoEdin Forto21%OuiNon
Nermin NikšićNermin Nikšić13%OuiNon
$64,1 k Vol
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço73%OuiNon
Lorenzo Pazolini25%OuiNon
$29,9 k Vol 05/10
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%OuiNon
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%OuiNon
$3,3 M Vol 20/09
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%OuiNon
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%OuiNon
$38,8 k Vol 08/09
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu69%OuiNon
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%OuiNon
$113,7 k Vol 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%OuiNon
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto15%OuiNon
$16,7 k Vol 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo40%OuiNon
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%OuiNon
$23 k Vol 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%OuiNon
121-12423%OuiNon
$10,6 k Vol 12/10
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath51%OuiNon
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%OuiNon
$28,7 k Vol 01/09
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha59%OuiNon
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior38%OuiNon
$15 k Vol 04/10
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%OuiNon
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud93%OuiNon
$309,2 k Vol 17/04
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party5%OuiNon
$29,2 k Vol 03/11
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%OuiNon
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%OuiNon
$485,6 k Vol 03/11
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite34%OuiNon
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%OuiNon
$22,6 k Vol 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%67%OuiNon
7-9%22%OuiNon
$13,6 k Vol 13/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke57%OuiNon
CDUCDU26%OuiNon
$3,3 M Vol 20/09
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira39%OuiNon
Julio CesarJulio Cesar29%OuiNon
$17,3 k Vol 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%OuiNon
William Peña FarfánWilliam Peña Farfán23%OuiNon
$18,4 k Vol 04/10
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
58%
de chance
Oui Non
$167,5 k Vol 20/09
Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3149%OuiNon
May 311%OuiNon
$6 k Vol 01/01
Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?Next Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?
Princess FakuPrincess Faku59%OuiNon
Yomelela TyaliYomelela Tyali7%OuiNon
$14,9 k Vol 18/11
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães34%OuiNon
GaguimGaguim32%OuiNon
$14,2 k Vol 04/10
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%OuiNon
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)48%OuiNon
$183 k Vol 03/11
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes66%OuiNon
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta31%OuiNon
$13,9 k Vol 04/10
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil74%OuiNon
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé25%OuiNon
$39,7 k Vol 31/08
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party5%OuiNon
$67,1 k Vol 03/11
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Marília ArraesMarília Arraes40%OuiNon
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%OuiNon
$18,7 k Vol 04/10
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%45%OuiNon
5-7%40%OuiNon
$8 k Vol 06/09
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party5%OuiNon
$39,6 k Vol 03/11
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez37%OuiNon
Duber Alberto Fernández SilvaDuber Alberto Fernández Silva25%OuiNon
$6,2 k Vol 04/10
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS48%OuiNon
SV26%OuiNon
$197,4 k Vol 03/10
Federal District Senate Election: 1st PlaceFederal District Senate Election: 1st Place
Michelle BolsonaroMichelle Bolsonaro63%OuiNon
Leila do VôleiLeila do Vôlei27%OuiNon
$11,1 k Vol 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas94%OuiNon
Jim PriestJim Priest6%OuiNon
$117,8 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%OuiNon
59-6129%OuiNon
$7,2 k Vol 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%OuiNon
Javier Antonio Onofre CcamaJavier Antonio Onofre Ccama15%OuiNon
$8 k Vol 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%OuiNon
Democratic Party5%OuiNon
$42,3 k Vol 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%OuiNon
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick5%OuiNon
$5,4 k Vol 06/02
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party5%OuiNon
$37,5 k Vol 03/11
Quebec General Election WinnerQuebec General Election Winner
PQPQ72%OuiNon
PLQPLQ17%OuiNon
$807,5 k Vol 05/10
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%OuiNon
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon47%OuiNon
$92,3 k Vol 30/04
Sonora Governor Election WinnerSonora Governor Election Winner
Lorenia Valles SampedroLorenia Valles Sampedro37%OuiNon
Luis Donaldo Colosio RiojasLuis Donaldo Colosio Riojas31%OuiNon
$20,7 k Vol 06/06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
de chance
Oui Non
$260,1 k Vol 31/12
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
36%
de chance
Oui Non
$372,3 k Vol 06/09
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%OuiNon
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%OuiNon
$210,5 k Vol 11/10
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro41%OuiNon
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni38%OuiNon
$10,1 k Vol 04/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour71%OuiNon
Olivier Faure61%OuiNon
$70,6 k Vol 23/04
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%OuiNon
4914%OuiNon
$2,9 M Vol 03/11
Espírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceEspírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sergio MeneguelliSergio Meneguelli41%OuiNon
Fabiano ContaratoFabiano Contarato32%OuiNon
$15,3 k Vol 04/10
Rondônia Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina35%OuiNon
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo28%OuiNon
$13,9 k Vol 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone77%OuiNon
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%OuiNon
$13,8 k Vol 2 jours restants
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1024%OuiNon
1220%OuiNon
$10,4 k Vol 03/11
São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election WinnerSão Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner
MLSTPMLSTP68%OuiNon
ADIADI30%OuiNon
$8,9 k Vol 27/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Horry County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone97%OuiNon
Ralph NormanRalph Norman2%OuiNon
$19,8 k Vol 2 jours restants
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira37%OuiNon
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro34%OuiNon
$28,3 k Vol 04/10
Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?Next Regional Board Chair of Östergötland?
Mattias OttossonMattias Ottosson63%OuiNon
Marie MorellMarie Morell21%OuiNon
$15,5 k Vol 13/09
Goiás Senate Election: 2nd PlaceGoiás Senate Election: 2nd Place
Gustavo GayerGustavo Gayer55%OuiNon
Vanderlan CardosoVanderlan Cardoso20%OuiNon
$23,6 k Vol 04/10
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos58%OuiNon
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana27%OuiNon
$16,2 k Vol 04/10
VA-03 House Election WinnerVA-03 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OuiNon
Republican Party2%OuiNon
$60,6 k Vol 03/11
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FAQ sur les Marchés Électoraux

Pourquoi les marchés électoraux sont-ils précis ?

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Quels marchés électoraux sont en direct maintenant ?

États-Unis 2028, Israël (par date), élections locales au Royaume-Uni et dans l'UE, ainsi que les primaires de partis. Suivez notre page pour des mises à jour.

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