Polymarket 中国预测市场

Polymarket 上的中国预测市场覆盖几大核心议题：台海局势与两岸关系、贸易与关税政策、对外关系，以及宏观经济走向。价格依据订单簿深度实时形成，而非跟随单一新闻标题。

每逢重要官方表态、贸易公告或两岸紧张局势变化，这些市场的成交尤为活跃。

47 个活跃市场
台湾
排序
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
33%
概率
是 否
$3.2万 成交量 31/12
中国是否会在2026年底前入侵台湾？ 中国是否会在2026年底前入侵台湾？
4%
概率
是 否
$4.7万 成交量 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
概率
是 否
$4.7万 成交量 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
AlibabaAlibaba94%是否
Z.aiZ.ai4%是否
$2.2万 成交量 还剩 7 天
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot43%是否
Z.aiZ.ai29%是否
$2.4万 成交量 30/09
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%是否
CATLCATL19%是否
$18.7万 成交量 30/06
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Z.aiZ.ai58%是否
MoonshotMoonshot30%是否
$2.4万 成交量 31/08
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
概率
是 否
$7,235 成交量 31/12
习近平会在2027年前访问美国吗？习近平会在2027年前访问美国吗？
December 3197%是否
October 3196%是否
$74万 成交量 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba67%是否
MoonshotMoonshot14%是否
$2.2万 成交量 30/09
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
概率
是 否
$4,521 成交量 31/12
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
2%
概率
是 否
$105.7万 成交量 31/12
Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?
China91%是否
日本48%是否
$5,764 成交量 01/09
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Z.aiZ.ai35%是否
MoonshotMoonshot28%是否
$2.4万 成交量 31/10
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
概率
是 否
$129.2万 成交量 31/12
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31? Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?
3%
概率
是 否
$4,310 成交量 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202620%
June 30, 20262%
$5.5万 成交量 01/01
China Annual GDP Growth 2026China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%88%是否
5.0–6.0%8%是否
$88.2万 成交量 31/01
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
MoonshotMoonshot64%是否
Z.aiZ.ai29%是否
$1,470 成交量 31/08
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Z.aiZ.ai48%是否
MoonshotMoonshot24%是否
$1,470 成交量 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
概率
是 否
$4.7万 成交量 30/09
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
4.3-4.6%46%是否
4.6-4.9%36%是否
$531 成交量 20/10
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026? Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
38%
概率
是 否
$1.8万 成交量 31/12
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
概率
是 否
$10.8万 成交量 31/12
China coup attempt before 2027? China coup attempt before 2027?
4%
概率
是 否
$292 成交量 31/12
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
MoonshotMoonshot32%是否
Z.aiZ.ai29%是否
$1,470 成交量 31/10
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
#337%是否
#111%是否
$21.1万 成交量 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
AlibabaAlibaba55%是否
MoonshotMoonshot32%是否
$2.2万 成交量 31/10
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
December 3148%是否
September 303%是否
$8.7万 成交量 01/01
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
8%
概率
是 否
$4.7万 成交量 30/06
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
14%
概率
是 否
$3.8万 成交量 31/12
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
20%
概率
是 否
$8,167 成交量 31/12
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
Dong Jun12%是否
Zhang Shengmin5%是否
$20.2万 成交量 31/12
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
No Change87%是否
Decrease13%是否
$36 成交量 30/09
US x China Military clash before 2027? US x China Military clash before 2027?
4%
概率
是 否
$19.7万 成交量 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by August 31? US x China tariff agreement by August 31?
1%
概率
是 否
$7,235 成交量 31/08
China Annual Inflation 2026China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0%60%是否
0.1 – 0.5%18%是否
$7.4万 成交量 10/01
China x India military clash by...?China x India military clash by...?
June 3050%是否
December 3150%是否
$32.8万 成交量 01/01
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
DeepSeekDeepSeek30%是否
ByteDanceByteDance15%是否
$7.7万 成交量 30/06
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
4%
概率
是 否
$10.6万 成交量 31/12
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?
2%
概率
是 否
$4.9万 成交量 31/12
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
9%
概率
是 否
$15.8万 成交量 31/12
Jimmy Lai released by...?Jimmy Lai released by...?
December 31, 20262%
June 30, 20261%
$37.9万 成交量 01/01
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai会在...前下台吗？Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai会在...前下台吗？
June 301%
December 3114%
$13.7万 成交量 01/01
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
6%
概率
是 否
$26.1万 成交量 31/12
Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?
December 3194%是否
September 304%是否
$4.6万 成交量 01/01
August Inflation China - AnnualAugust Inflation China - Annual
0.5% - 0.6%39%是否
0.7% - 0.8%32%是否
$1.9万 成交量 09/09
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中国市场常见问题

Polymarket 上有哪些中国相关市场？

涵盖台海与两岸情境、贸易与关税决策、外交事件以及经济指标。包含二元与多结果合约。

哪些因素会影响中国市场价格？

官方表态、贸易公告、军事与外交动向以及重大新闻报道。价格通常在重要进展后数分钟内作出反应。

预测市场的价格如何形成？

没有庄家开盘。价格来自订单簿中的真实买卖单，因此每个合约价格都反映市场的实时共识概率。

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