China Prediction Markets

China prediction markets on Polymarket cover the country's central scenarios: the Taiwan question, trade and tariff policy, foreign relations, and macroeconomic developments. Prices are set in real time based on order-book depth, not a headline.

These markets are especially active around major statements, trade announcements and shifts in cross-strait tension.

47 active markets
Taiwan
Sort
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
33%
chance
Yes No
$31.7K Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
chance
Yes No
$46.9K Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
chance
Yes No
$46.9K Volume 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
AlibabaAlibaba94%YesNo
Z.aiZ.ai4%YesNo
$22.2K Volume 7 days left
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot43%YesNo
Z.aiZ.ai29%YesNo
$24.1K Volume 30/09
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%YesNo
CATLCATL19%YesNo
$186.9K Volume 30/06
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Z.aiZ.ai58%YesNo
MoonshotMoonshot30%YesNo
$24.1K Volume 31/08
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86%
chance
Yes No
$7.2K Volume 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 3197%YesNo
October 3196%YesNo
$739.7K Volume 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba67%YesNo
MoonshotMoonshot14%YesNo
$22.2K Volume 30/09
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes No
$4.5K Volume 31/12
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
2%
chance
Yes No
$1.1M Volume 31/12
Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?
China91%YesNo
Japan48%YesNo
$5.8K Volume 01/09
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Z.aiZ.ai35%YesNo
MoonshotMoonshot28%YesNo
$24.1K Volume 31/10
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes No
$1.3M Volume 31/12
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31? Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?
3%
chance
Yes No
$4.3K Volume 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202620%
June 30, 20262%
$55.5K Volume 01/01
China Annual GDP Growth 2026China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%88%YesNo
5.0–6.0%8%YesNo
$881.8K Volume 31/01
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
MoonshotMoonshot64%YesNo
Z.aiZ.ai29%YesNo
$1.5K Volume 31/08
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Z.aiZ.ai48%YesNo
MoonshotMoonshot24%YesNo
$1.5K Volume 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
chance
Yes No
$46.9K Volume 30/09
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
4.3-4.6%46%YesNo
4.6-4.9%36%YesNo
$531 Volume 20/10
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026? Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
38%
chance
Yes No
$17.6K Volume 31/12
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
chance
Yes No
$107.6K Volume 31/12
China coup attempt before 2027? China coup attempt before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$292 Volume 31/12
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
MoonshotMoonshot32%YesNo
Z.aiZ.ai29%YesNo
$1.5K Volume 31/10
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
#337%YesNo
#111%YesNo
$211.3K Volume 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
AlibabaAlibaba55%YesNo
MoonshotMoonshot32%YesNo
$22.2K Volume 31/10
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
December 3148%YesNo
September 303%YesNo
$86.5K Volume 01/01
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
8%
chance
Yes No
$46.9K Volume 30/06
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
14%
chance
Yes No
$38.4K Volume 31/12
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
20%
chance
Yes No
$8.2K Volume 31/12
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
Dong Jun12%YesNo
Zhang Shengmin5%YesNo
$202.2K Volume 31/12
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
No Change87%YesNo
Decrease13%YesNo
$36 Volume 30/09
US x China Military clash before 2027? US x China Military clash before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$197.4K Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by August 31? US x China tariff agreement by August 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$7.2K Volume 31/08
China Annual Inflation 2026China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0%60%YesNo
0.1 – 0.5%18%YesNo
$73.9K Volume 10/01
China x India military clash by...?China x India military clash by...?
June 3050%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
$327.7K Volume 01/01
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
DeepSeekDeepSeek30%YesNo
ByteDanceByteDance15%YesNo
$76.6K Volume 30/06
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
4%
chance
Yes No
$105.6K Volume 31/12
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?
2%
chance
Yes No
$48.8K Volume 31/12
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$157.9K Volume 31/12
Jimmy Lai released by...?Jimmy Lai released by...?
December 31, 20262%
June 30, 20261%
$379.5K Volume 01/01
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$136.7K Volume 01/01
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
6%
chance
Yes No
$261.5K Volume 31/12
Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?
December 3194%YesNo
September 304%YesNo
$45.5K Volume 01/01
August Inflation China - AnnualAugust Inflation China - Annual
0.5% - 0.6%39%YesNo
0.7% - 0.8%32%YesNo
$18.6K Volume 09/09
Load more on Polymarket →

Want to trade China markets?

Open a Polymarket account and start trading today

Open a Polymarket Account

China Markets FAQ

What China markets exist on Polymarket?

Taiwan and cross-strait scenarios, trade and tariff decisions, foreign policy events, and economic indicators. Binary and multi-outcome contracts.

What moves China market prices?

Official statements, trade announcements, military and diplomatic developments and major news reports. Prices react within minutes to significant developments.

Can I trade China markets from anywhere?

Yes, through Polymarket's Polygon account. Track live China markets on our site and open an account through our referral link.

Start Polymarket Training For Free
Trade prediction markets with virtual money. Real prices, zero risk. Compete on the leaderboard.
$1K
Virtual Cash
500+
Markets
$0
Real Risk
Learn more
Real prices Zero risk Leaderboard