选举预测市场

选举市场是Polymarket的核心：美国总统、党内初选、国会竞选，以及任何主要民主国家的投票。2024年美国选举市场的交易量达数十亿。

定价结合了民调、党派财务数据、经济指标和报道，所有信息都浓缩成一个价格。为分析师和以观点驱动的投资者提供了丰富的交易基础。

78 个活跃市场
排序
2028年共和党总统候选人提名2028年共和党总统候选人提名
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%是否
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%是否
$6.9亿 成交量 07/11
下一届法国总统选举下一届法国总统选举
玛丽娜·勒庞玛丽娜·勒庞32%是否
爱德华·菲利普爱德华·菲利普25%是否
$1.2亿 成交量 30/04
巴西总统选举巴西总统选举
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达·席尔瓦路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达·席尔瓦63%是否
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗弗拉维奥·博索纳罗34%是否
$1.3亿 成交量 04/10
2028年总统选举获胜者2028年总统选举获胜者
JD VanceJD Vance23%是否
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%是否
$6.9亿 成交量 07/11
2028年民主党总统候选人2028年民主党总统候选人
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%是否
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%是否
$12.7亿 成交量 07/11
哪个政党将在俄罗斯议会选举中获得最多席位？哪个政党将在俄罗斯议会选举中获得最多席位？
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)72%是否
New People (NL)New People (NL)22%是否
$2,176.8万 成交量 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson91%是否
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%是否
$401.6万 成交量 13/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone65%是否
Ralph NormanRalph Norman35%是否
$293.5万 成交量 今日截止
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%是否
September 3089%是否
$2,627.1万 成交量 31/08
以色列下次选举后，谁将成为下任总理？以色列下次选举后，谁将成为下任总理？
加迪·埃伊森科特加迪·埃伊森科特55%是否
本杰明·内塔尼亚胡本杰明·内塔尼亚胡26%是否
$3,299.2万 成交量 31/12
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%是否
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)50%是否
$91.5万 成交量 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep48%是否
R Senate, D House39%是否
$1,039.7万 成交量 03/11
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
1%
概率
是 否
$12.8万 成交量 20/09
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerRio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes94%是否
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%是否
$41.9万 成交量 05/10
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
325–33941%是否
340–35422%是否
$21.1万 成交量 20/09
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)61%是否
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)39%是否
$58.7万 成交量 03/11
2026年哪个党将赢得众议院？2026年哪个党将赢得众议院？
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%是否
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%是否
$1.4万 成交量 03/11
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?
David Morales52%是否
Brett Smiley46%是否
$2.3万 成交量 09/09
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%是否
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%是否
$15万 成交量 31/12
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço78%是否
Lorenzo Pazolini16%是否
$3万 成交量 05/10
Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary WinnerRhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Helena FoulkesHelena Foulkes94%是否
Dan McKeeDan McKee5%是否
$3.9万 成交量 08/09
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%是否
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%是否
$326.8万 成交量 20/09
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%是否
September 3093%是否
$35.7万 成交量 01/01
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%是否
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%是否
$31.2万 成交量 17/04
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu70%是否
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%是否
$11.4万 成交量 16/01
Amazonas Senate Election: 1st PlaceAmazonas Senate Election: 1st Place
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%是否
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto17%是否
$1.7万 成交量 04/10
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd PlacePiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira43%是否
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro21%是否
$2.1万 成交量 04/10
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
125-12830%是否
121-12423%是否
$1.1万 成交量 12/10
Colima Governor Election WinnerColima Governor Election Winner
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera57%是否
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%是否
$2.8万 成交量 06/06
Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd PlaceTocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Alexandre GuimarãesAlexandre Guimarães41%是否
GaguimGaguim40%是否
$1.7万 成交量 04/10
Tocantins Governor Election WinnerTocantins Governor Election Winner
Professora DorinhaProfessora Dorinha57%是否
Vicentinho JúniorVicentinho Júnior40%是否
$1.5万 成交量 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy48%是否
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva48%是否
$2.5万 成交量 04/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%是否
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva5%是否
$523.4万 成交量 04/10
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party5%是否
$3万 成交量 03/11
San Luis Potosí Governor Election WinnerSan Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva53%是否
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%是否
$2.1万 成交量 06/06
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party3%是否
$4.9万 成交量 03/11
Rondônia Senate Election: 1st PlaceRondônia Senate Election: 1st Place
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo38%是否
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina38%是否
$2.3万 成交量 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
5-7%63%是否
7-9%25%是否
$1.5万 成交量 13/09
MA-08 Democratic Primary WinnerMA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch50%是否
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath48%是否
$3.1万 成交量 01/09
Netanyahu会在...前下台吗？Netanyahu会在...前下台吗？
December 3149%是否
May 311%是否
$7,111 成交量 01/01
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election WinnerChicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil75%是否
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé24%是否
$4.2万 成交量 31/08
Piauí Senate Election: 1st PlacePiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira48%是否
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro39%是否
$3.2万 成交量 04/10
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke58%是否
CDUCDU26%是否
$332.9万 成交量 20/09
Mato Grosso Governor Election WinnerMato Grosso Governor Election Winner
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes54%是否
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta44%是否
$1.6万 成交量 04/10
Cusco Mayoral Election WinnerCusco Mayoral Election Winner
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar30%是否
Sergio Sullca CondoriSergio Sullca Condori28%是否
$1.8万 成交量 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%是否
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%是否
$48.6万 成交量 03/11
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%是否
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)8%是否
$9.5万 成交量
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)54%是否
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)47%是否
$18.3万 成交量 03/11
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
59%
概率
是 否
$16.8万 成交量 20/09
Chiclayo Mayoral Election WinnerChiclayo Mayoral Election Winner
Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez SánchezEdwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez30%是否
Agustín Villarreal GranadosAgustín Villarreal Granados26%是否
$7,332 成交量 04/10
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite46%是否
Simone TebetSimone Tebet31%是否
$2.4万 成交量 04/10
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%是否
Jim PriestJim Priest8%是否
$11.9万 成交量 今日截止
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd PlaceSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite35%是否
Marina SilvaMarina Silva32%是否
$2.3万 成交量 04/10
NC-04 House Election WinnerNC-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party5%是否
$3.8万 成交量 03/11
NC-12 House Election WinnerNC-12 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party3%是否
$6.4万 成交量 03/11
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?
3-5%49%是否
5-7%42%是否
$8,222 成交量 06/09
Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd PlacePernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa45%是否
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho34%是否
$2万 成交量 04/10
AL-07 House Election WinnerAL-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party5%是否
$6.7万 成交量 03/11
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS49%是否
SV26%是否
$19.8万 成交量 03/10
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary WinnerOklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%是否
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond21%是否
$53万 成交量 今日截止
VT-AL House Election WinnerVT-AL House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%是否
Republican Party5%是否
$4万 成交量 03/11
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
38%
概率
是 否
$37.4万 成交量 06/09
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen84%是否
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon50%是否
$9.3万 成交量 30/04
Florida Governor Election WinnerFlorida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)Byron Donalds (R)80%是否
David Jolly (D)David Jolly (D)22%是否
$5.6万 成交量 03/11
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
62-6430%是否
59-6129%是否
$7,225 成交量 12/10
Arequipa Mayoral Election WinnerArequipa Mayoral Election Winner
Andrés Eliseo Risueño PortugalAndrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal31%是否
Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar LlosaRicardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa18%是否
$7,996 成交量 04/10
TX-01 House Election WinnerTX-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%是否
Democratic Party5%是否
$4.2万 成交量 03/11
Lagos, Nigeria Governor Election WinnerLagos, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%是否
Rhodes-Vivour Gbadebo PatrickRhodes-Vivour Gbadebo Patrick6%是否
$5,387 成交量 06/02
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%是否
4914%是否
$286.4万 成交量 03/11
Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Zukan HelezZukan Helez37%是否
Sabina ĆudićSabina Ćudić27%是否
$6.7万 成交量
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st PlaceMinas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Marília CamposMarília Campos48%是否
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana13%是否
$1.7万 成交量 04/10
Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd PlaceRio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy28%是否
Pedro PauloPedro Paulo21%是否
$2.7万 成交量 04/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Runoff: Charleston County Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%是否
Ralph NormanRalph Norman22%是否
$1.4万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
49%
概率
是 否
$3.4万 成交量 还剩 6 天
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
概率
是 否
$26万 成交量 31/12
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled94%是否
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%是否
$21.1万 成交量 11/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour68%是否
Olivier Faure59%是否
$7.1万 成交量 23/04
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st PlaceSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni45%是否
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro39%是否
$1万 成交量 04/10
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选举市场常见问题

为什么选举市场准确？

它们需要“投入真实资金”：人们将钱投入他们的观点，从而过滤掉低质量的噪音。交易量越大，价格越可靠。

现在有哪些选举市场在进行？

美国2028年、以色列（按日期）、英国和欧盟地方选举，以及党内初选。请关注我们的页面以获取更新。

我如何在选举市场中定价风险？

检查流动性（订单簿深度）、历史波动性和决策日期。流动性不足的市场容易出现低效定价。

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