Polymarket 台湾预测市场

Polymarket 上的台湾预测市场覆盖几大核心议题：两岸关系与地区安全形势、台湾选举，以及相关政策走向。价格依据订单簿深度实时形成。

每逢北京或台北的重要表态、台海周边军事动态以及选举周期，这些市场的成交尤为活跃。

29 活跃市场
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
概率
是 否
$4,351 成交量 31/12
Chiayi City Mayor Election WinnerChiayi City Mayor Election Winner
Wang Mei-huiWang Mei-hui79%是否
Chang Chi-kaiChang Chi-kai17%是否
$1.1万 成交量 28/11
Kaohsiung Mayor Election WinnerKaohsiung Mayor Election Winner
Lai Jui-lungLai Jui-lung78%是否
Ko Chih-enKo Chih-en23%是否
$1.1万 成交量 28/11
Changhua County Magistrate Election WinnerChanghua County Magistrate Election Winner
Chen Su-yuehChen Su-yueh80%是否
Wei Ping-chengWei Ping-cheng20%是否
$7,141 成交量 28/11
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
8%
概率
是 否
$4.4万 成交量 30/06
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
6%
概率
是 否
$106 成交量 31/12
New Taipei Mayor Election WinnerNew Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Lee Shu-chuanLee Shu-chuan78%是否
Su Chiao-huiSu Chiao-hui19%是否
$5,158 成交量 28/11
Taitung County Magistrate Election WinnerTaitung County Magistrate Election Winner
Wu Hsiu-huaWu Hsiu-hua86%是否
Chen YingChen Ying14%是否
$7,519 成交量 28/11
Taoyuan Mayor Election WinnerTaoyuan Mayor Election Winner
Chang San-chengChang San-cheng90%是否
Huang Shih-chiehHuang Shih-chieh7%是否
$9,798 成交量 28/11
Penghu County Magistrate Election WinnerPenghu County Magistrate Election Winner
Chen Chen-chungChen Chen-chung59%是否
Wu Shu-chinWu Shu-chin28%是否
$5,907 成交量 28/11
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
Kuomintang (KMT)Kuomintang (KMT)92%是否
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)9%是否
$15.3万 成交量 28/11
Taichung Mayor Election WinnerTaichung Mayor Election Winner
Johnny ChiangJohnny Chiang89%是否
Ho Hsin-chunHo Hsin-chun4%是否
$2,792 成交量 28/11
Taipei Mayor Election WinnerTaipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-anChiang Wan-an92%是否
Puma ShenPuma Shen7%是否
$4,111 成交量 28/11
Tainan Mayor Election WinnerTainan Mayor Election Winner
Chen Ting-feiChen Ting-fei93%是否
Hsieh Lung-chiehHsieh Lung-chieh5%是否
$3,272 成交量 28/11
Keelung Mayor Election WinnerKeelung Mayor Election Winner
Hsieh Kuo-liangHsieh Kuo-liang86%是否
Tung Tzu-weiTung Tzu-wei13%是否
$1,753 成交量 28/11
Hualien County Magistrate Election WinnerHualien County Magistrate Election Winner
Yu Shu-chenYu Shu-chen79%是否
Wei Chia-hsienWei Chia-hsien19%是否
$5,755 成交量 28/11
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
4%
概率
是 否
$10.6万 成交量 31/12
Lienchiang County Magistrate Election WinnerLienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner
Wang Chung-mingWang Chung-ming86%是否
Tsao Erh-yuanTsao Erh-yuan6%是否
$4,994 成交量 28/11
Lai Ching-te impeached by...?Lai Ching-te impeached by...?
December 314%
1%
$135.9万 成交量 01/01
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai会在...前下台吗？Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai会在...前下台吗？
June 301%
December 3114%
$13.7万 成交量 01/01
Yilan County Magistrate Election WinnerYilan County Magistrate Election Winner
Lin Kuo-changLin Kuo-chang56%是否
Wu Tsung-hsienWu Tsung-hsien33%是否
$4,873 成交量 28/11
Hsinchu County Magistrate Election WinnerHsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner
Hsu Hsin-yingHsu Hsin-ying81%是否
Cheng Chao-fangCheng Chao-fang20%是否
$4,631 成交量 28/11
Hsinchu City Mayor Election WinnerHsinchu City Mayor Election Winner
Ann KaoAnn Kao88%是否
Chuang Ching-chengChuang Ching-cheng8%是否
$1,901 成交量 28/11
Miaoli County Magistrate Election WinnerMiaoli County Magistrate Election Winner
Chung Tung-chinChung Tung-chin89%是否
Chen Pin-anChen Pin-an7%是否
$1,508 成交量 28/11
Nantou County Magistrate Election WinnerNantou County Magistrate Election Winner
Hsu Shu-huaHsu Shu-hua91%是否
Wen Shih-chengWen Shih-cheng7%是否
$2,781 成交量 28/11
Yunlin County Magistrate Election WinnerYunlin County Magistrate Election Winner
Chang Chia-chunChang Chia-chun84%是否
Liu Chien-kuoLiu Chien-kuo7%是否
$1,354 成交量 28/11
Chiayi County Magistrate Election WinnerChiayi County Magistrate Election Winner
Tsai Yi-yuTsai Yi-yu87%是否
Wu Pin-juiWu Pin-jui11%是否
$4,911 成交量 28/11
Pingtung County Magistrate Election WinnerPingtung County Magistrate Election Winner
Chou Chun-miChou Chun-mi87%是否
Su Ching-chuanSu Ching-chuan13%是否
$3,138 成交量 28/11
Kinmen County Magistrate Election WinnerKinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
Chen Yu-jenChen Yu-jen88%是否
Li Wen-liangLi Wen-liang10%是否
$2,862 成交量 28/11
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台湾市场常见问题

Polymarket 上有哪些台湾相关市场？

涵盖两岸关系与地区安全情境、台湾选举，以及相关政策事件。包含二元与多结果合约。

哪些因素会影响台湾市场价格？

北京与台北的官方表态、台海周边军事动态、选举进展以及重大新闻。价格通常在数分钟内作出反应。

预测市场的价格如何形成？

没有庄家开盘。价格来自订单簿中的真实买卖单，因此每个合约价格都反映市场的实时共识概率。

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