Geopolitik-Prognosemärkte

Geopolitik-Prognosemärkte bepreisen die größten Machtkämpfe der Welt - Kriege, militärische Zusammenstöße, Waffenruhen, Friedensverhandlungen und internationale Abkommen - als lebendige Wahrscheinlichkeiten, die sich mit jeder Schlagzeile ändern. Polymarkets verfolgt die echten Preise aktiver Konflikte und Machtverschiebungen weltweit und lässt dich im Trainingsmodus risikofrei üben, bevor du auf Polymarket handelst.

100 aktive Märkte
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%JaNein
August 25August 2599%JaNein
$2,5 Mio. Vol 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%JaNein
October 3153%JaNein
$19,3 Mio. Vol 01/01
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$171,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
Chance
Ja Nein
$173,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Dezember? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Dezember?
35%
Chance
Ja Nein
$377,1 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 August?Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 August?
August 311%
August 151%
$377,1 Tsd. Vol 01/09
Nächste Runde der US-Iran-Friedensgespräche bis...?Nächste Runde der US-Iran-Friedensgespräche bis...?
March 31, 202765%JaNein
December 31, 202652%JaNein
$115,8 Tsd. Vol 01/04
US-Iran endgültiger Atomdeal bis...?US-Iran endgültiger Atomdeal bis...?
31. Dezember12%JaNein
November 307%JaNein
$16,2 Mio. Vol 01/01
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 30 September? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 30 September?
6%
Chance
Ja Nein
$377,1 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Wird die USA Iran vor 2027 angreifen? Wird die USA Iran vor 2027 angreifen?
17%
Chance
Ja Nein
$84,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%JaNein
September 3089%JaNein
$26,3 Mio. Vol 31/08
Putin bis 31. Dezember 2026 nicht mehr Präsident Russlands?Putin bis 31. Dezember 2026 nicht mehr Präsident Russlands?
June 30, 202714%JaNein
December 31, 20268%JaNein
$69,1 Tsd. Vol 01/07
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3144%JaNein
October 3136%JaNein
$2,5 Mio. Vol 01/01
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?
September 3085%
December 3193%
$103 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Wer wird der nächste Premierminister Israels nach der nächsten Wahl sein?Wer wird der nächste Premierminister Israels nach der nächsten Wahl sein?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%JaNein
Benjamin NetanjahuBenjamin Netanjahu27%JaNein
$33 Mio. Vol 31/12
Kharg-Insel nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle bis...?Kharg-Insel nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle bis...?
31. Dezember8%JaNein
30. September2%JaNein
$71,5 Mio. Vol 01/01
Wird China Taiwan bis Ende 2026 angreifen? Wird China Taiwan bis Ende 2026 angreifen?
4%
Chance
Ja Nein
$44,1 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Fällt das iranische Regime bis 30 September? Fällt das iranische Regime bis 30 September?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$79,4 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
September 3039%JaNein
September 1518%JaNein
$40,5 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Fällt das iranische Regime vor 2027? Fällt das iranische Regime vor 2027?
7%
Chance
Ja Nein
$79,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%JaNein
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%JaNein
$6,2 Mio. Vol 01/01
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
33%
Chance
Ja Nein
$31,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israel schließt seinen Luftraum bis...?Israel schließt seinen Luftraum bis...?
September 308%JaNein
August 312%JaNein
$27,4 Mio. Vol 01/10
Iranischer Führer Ende 2026?Iranischer Führer Ende 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei82%JaNein
Kein Staatsoberhaupt4%JaNein
$38,8 Mio. Vol 31/12
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202725%JaNein
December 3116%JaNein
$24 Mio. Vol 01/07
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%JaNein
September 158%JaNein
$663,6 Tsd. Vol 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274,2 Tsd. Vol 01/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 315%JaNein
September 30September 305%JaNein
$22,3 Tsd. Vol 01/01
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3125%JaNein
October 3115%JaNein
$5,9 Mio. Vol 01/01
Allzeithoch von WTI-Rohöl bis ___?Allzeithoch von WTI-Rohöl bis ___?
December 3113%JaNein
September 302%JaNein
$2,7 Mio. Vol 01/01
Stimmt Iran bis 31 Dezember dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu? Stimmt Iran bis 31 Dezember dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu?
14%
Chance
Ja Nein
$22,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk12%JaNein
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni3%JaNein
$31,4 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?
September 3010%
December 3154%
$47,1 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 30 November? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 30 November?
25%
Chance
Ja Nein
$377,1 Tsd. Vol 30/11
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3152%JaNein
October 31October 3119%JaNein
$1,4 Mio. Vol 01/01
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
8%
Chance
Ja Nein
$17,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Wo wird die nächste Runde der US-Iran-Friedensgespräche stattfinden...?Wo wird die nächste Runde der US-Iran-Friedensgespräche stattfinden...?
Keine Sitzung bis zum 30. September74%JaNein
Schweiz10%JaNein
$17,6 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%JaNein
October 3113%JaNein
$6,8 Mio. Vol 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
September 3094%JaNein
August 3177%JaNein
$21,9 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf43%JaNein
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%JaNein
$16,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3052%JaNein
August 3115%JaNein
$908,6 Tsd. Vol 01/10
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Oktober? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Oktober?
16%
Chance
Ja Nein
$377,1 Tsd. Vol 31/10
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding17%JaNein
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)11%JaNein
$687,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya8%JaNein
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy5%JaNein
$23,5 Mio. Vol 10/10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3118%JaNein
October 3111%JaNein
$11,1 Mio. Vol 01/01
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3152%JaNein
ChinaChina45%JaNein
$14,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 15 September? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 15 September?
2%
Chance
Ja Nein
$377,1 Tsd. Vol 15/09
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3152%JaNein
September 3010%JaNein
$382,8 Tsd. Vol 01/01
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
15%
Chance
Ja Nein
$189,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202757%JaNein
March 31, 202741%JaNein
$6 Mio. Vol 01/07
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202668%JaNein
December9%JaNein
$333,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?
August 319%
October 3138%
$135 Tsd. Vol 01/11
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%JaNein
September 3093%JaNein
$356,8 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%JaNein
CATLCATL20%JaNein
$186,5 Tsd. Vol 30/06
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%JaNein
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin46%JaNein
$31,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Iran target a Arab country on...?Will Iran target a Arab country on...?
August 1799%JaNein
August 3012%JaNein
$660,2 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
August 319%
October 3145%
$63 Tsd. Vol 01/11
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Donald TuskDonald Tusk86%JaNein
Ursula von der LeyenUrsula von der Leyen70%JaNein
$351,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$108 Tsd. Vol 01/10
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31December 3135%JaNein
September 30September 307%JaNein
$2,9 Mio. Vol 01/01
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%JaNein
Delcy Rodríguez10%JaNein
$95,8 Mio. Vol 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
87%
Chance
Ja Nein
$6,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Netanyahu bis... aus dem Amt?Netanyahu bis... aus dem Amt?
December 3149%JaNein
May 311%JaNein
$6 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
August 2550%JaNein
August 2640%JaNein
$5,8 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Wird Xi Jinping die USA vor 2027 besuchen?Wird Xi Jinping die USA vor 2027 besuchen?
December 3197%JaNein
October 3196%JaNein
$738,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 3183%JaNein
October 3178%JaNein
$5,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%JaNein
40+2%JaNein
$5,3 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia85%JaNein
Druzkhivka52%JaNein
$5,1 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3033%JaNein
September 1516%JaNein
$5 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3152%
$113,7 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 2478%JaNein
August 1776%JaNein
$21,9 Tsd. Vol 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3119%JaNein
January 31January 311%JaNein
$7,3 Mio. Vol 01/01
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
Chance
Ja Nein
$4,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$5,8 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Saudi-ArabienSaudi-Arabien10%JaNein
VenezuelaVenezuela10%JaNein
$4,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 311%
$307,8 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
2%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,1 Mio. Vol 31/12
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$4 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
<465%JaNein
420%JaNein
$4,2 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 225%
August 3130%
$3,5 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Israel zieht sich bis... aus dem Libanon zurück...?Israel zieht sich bis... aus dem Libanon zurück...?
December 3110%JaNein
September 302%JaNein
$8,4 Mio. Vol 01/01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%JaNein
November 3050%JaNein
$3,6 Mio. Vol 01/01
Will Russia capture Toretske by...?Will Russia capture Toretske by...?
October 31October 3165%JaNein
September 30September 3033%JaNein
$153,5 Tsd. Vol 01/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%JaNein
September 302%JaNein
$29,1 Mio. Vol 01/01
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-2097%JaNein
20-402%JaNein
$3 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 3078%JaNein
September 1546%JaNein
$2,9 Tsd. Vol 01/10
Will Russia capture Svitle by...?Will Russia capture Svitle by...?
August 319%
October 3140%
$56,8 Tsd. Vol 01/11
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 311%
September 302%
$477,2 Tsd. Vol 30/09
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
77%
Chance
Ja Nein
$4,4 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
7%
Chance
Ja Nein
$2,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?
15%
Chance
Ja Nein
$115 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202729%
$43,4 Tsd. Vol 01/07
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?
December 31December 3185%JaNein
October 31October 3168%JaNein
$207,7 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz52%JaNein
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham48%JaNein
$2,4 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?
September 3014%JaNein
May 313%JaNein
$67,6 Tsd. Vol 01/10
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%JaNein
September 307%JaNein
$2,3 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1736%JaNein
August 2627%JaNein
$2,5 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
September 306%
December 3132%
$177,3 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
16%
Chance
Ja Nein
$6,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
July 3197%JaNein
August 3117%JaNein
$763,4 Tsd. Vol 01/09
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