Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Geopolitics prediction markets price the world's biggest power struggles - wars, military clashes, sanctions, peace talks and international deals - as live probabilities that update with every headline.
On Polymarket these markets often carry deep liquidity around fast-moving news events and run for weeks or months. Polymarkets tracks the real prices and probabilities across active conflicts and power shifts worldwide, so you can read the crowd's view in real time, compare scenarios, and practice risk-free in training mode before trading on Polymarket.
August 2299%YesNoAugust 2599%YesNo
December 3173%YesNo
October 3153%YesNo
August 311%
August 151%
March 31, 202765%YesNo
December 31, 202652%YesNo
December 3112%YesNo
November 307%YesNo
August 3197%YesNo
September 3089%YesNo
June 30, 202714%YesNo
December 31, 20268%YesNo
December 3144%YesNo
October 3136%YesNo
September 3085%
December 3193%
Gadi Eizenkot58%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu27%YesNo
December 318%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
September 3039%YesNo
September 1518%YesNo
December 31, 20266%YesNoSeptember 30, 20261%YesNo
September 308%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
Mojtaba Khamenei82%YesNo
No Head of State4%YesNo
June 30, 202725%YesNo
December 3116%YesNo
September 3017%YesNo
September 158%YesNo
July 314%
August 314%
December 315%YesNoSeptember 305%YesNo
December 3125%YesNo
October 3115%YesNo
December 3113%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
Elon Musk12%YesNo
Giorgia Meloni3%YesNoSeptember 3010%
December 3154%
December 3152%YesNo
October 3119%YesNo
No Meeting by September 3074%YesNo
Switzerland10%YesNo
December 3129%YesNo
October 3113%YesNo
September 3094%YesNo
August 3177%YesNo
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf43%YesNo
Jared Kushner39%YesNo
September 3052%YesNo
August 3115%YesNo
Iran Reconstruction Funding17%YesNo
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)11%YesNo
Yulia Navalnaya8%YesNo
Volodymyr Zelenskyy5%YesNo
December 3118%YesNo
October 3111%YesNo
No meeting by December 3152%YesNo
China45%YesNo
December 3152%YesNo
September 3010%YesNo
June 30, 202757%YesNo
March 31, 202741%YesNo
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202668%YesNoDecember9%YesNo
August 319%
October 3138%
December 3196%YesNo
September 3093%YesNo
Alibaba22%YesNo
CATL20%YesNo
Mohammed bin Salman77%YesNo
Vladimir Putin46%YesNo
August 1799%YesNo
August 3012%YesNo
August 319%
October 3145%
Donald Tusk86%YesNo
Ursula von der Leyen70%YesNo
August 311%
September 303%
December 3135%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
Nicolás Maduro86%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
December 3149%YesNo
May 311%YesNo
August 2550%YesNo
August 2640%YesNo
December 3197%YesNo
October 3196%YesNo
December 3183%YesNo
October 3178%YesNo
30+7%YesNo
40+2%YesNo
Dopropillia85%YesNo
Druzkhivka52%YesNo
September 3033%YesNo
September 1516%YesNo
September 3023%
December 3152%
August 2478%YesNo
August 1776%YesNo
December 3119%YesNo
January 311%YesNo
Saudi Arabia10%YesNo
Venezuela10%YesNo
July 311%
August 311%
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
<465%YesNo
420%YesNo
August 225%
August 3130%
December 3110%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
November 3050%YesNo
October 3165%YesNoSeptember 3033%YesNo
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
0-2097%YesNo
20-402%YesNo
September 3078%YesNo
September 1546%YesNo
August 319%
October 3140%
August 311%
September 302%
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202729%
December 3185%YesNoOctober 3168%YesNo
Friedrich Merz52%YesNo
Andy Burnham48%YesNo
September 3014%YesNo
May 313%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
August 1736%YesNo
August 2627%YesNo
September 306%
December 3132%
July 3197%YesNo
August 3117%YesNo
Geopolitics markets FAQ
What do geopolitics markets cover?
Wars and military clashes, ceasefires and peace talks, sanctions, international deals, elections with global stakes, and broader shifts in power between major countries - each as a yes/no or multi-outcome market with a live probability.
How do the odds work?
Each outcome trades between 1¢ and 99¢; the price is the market's implied probability. Prices move in real time as traders react to news, so they reflect the current consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
Can I follow or test these without risk?
Yes. Polymarkets's free training mode lets you paper-trade any market with live prices and $1,000 in practice money - no card, no risk - before going to Polymarket.
