🌍 预测市场：地缘政治

100 活跃市场

Geopolitics prediction markets — wars, international deals and global power shifts

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%是否
August 25August 2599%是否
$250.5万 成交量 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%是否
October 3153%是否
$1,926.6万 成交量 01/01
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
概率
是 否
$17.2万 成交量 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
概率
是 否
$17.4万 成交量 31/12
12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
35%
概率
是 否
$37.7万 成交量 31/12
8月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常?8月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常?
August 311%
August 151%
$37.7万 成交量 01/09
美伊和平谈判下一轮到...?美伊和平谈判下一轮到...?
March 31, 202765%是否
December 31, 202652%是否
$11.6万 成交量 01/04
美伊最终核协议到...?美伊最终核协议到...?
12月31日12%是否
November 307%是否
$1,618.8万 成交量 01/01
9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
6%
概率
是 否
$37.7万 成交量 30/09
美国会在2027年前入侵伊朗吗？ 美国会在2027年前入侵伊朗吗？
17%
概率
是 否
$8.5万 成交量 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%是否
September 3089%是否
$2,626.5万 成交量 31/08
普京在2026年12月31日前不再担任俄罗斯总统？普京在2026年12月31日前不再担任俄罗斯总统？
June 30, 202714%是否
December 31, 20268%是否
$6.9万 成交量 01/07
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3144%是否
October 3136%是否
$251.1万 成交量 01/01
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?
September 3085%
December 3193%
$10.3万 成交量 01/01
以色列下次选举后，谁将成为下任总理？以色列下次选举后，谁将成为下任总理？
加迪·埃伊森科特加迪·埃伊森科特58%是否
本杰明·内塔尼亚胡本杰明·内塔尼亚胡27%是否
$3,296.8万 成交量 31/12
哈尔格岛不再受伊朗控制到...?哈尔格岛不再受伊朗控制到...?
12月31日8%是否
9月30日2%是否
$7,147.5万 成交量 01/01
中国是否会在2026年底前入侵台湾？ 中国是否会在2026年底前入侵台湾？
4%
概率
是 否
$4.4万 成交量 31/12
伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗？
1%
概率
是 否
$7.9万 成交量 30/09
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
September 3039%是否
September 1518%是否
$4.1万 成交量 30/09
伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？
7%
概率
是 否
$7.9万 成交量 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%是否
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%是否
$621.1万 成交量 01/01
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
33%
概率
是 否
$3.2万 成交量 31/12
以色列将在...关闭其空域吗？以色列将在...关闭其空域吗？
September 308%是否
August 312%是否
$2,737.9万 成交量 01/10
伊朗领导人将在2026年底更替？伊朗领导人将在2026年底更替？
莫赫塔巴·哈梅内伊82%是否
无国家元首4%是否
$3,878.4万 成交量 31/12
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202725%是否
December 3116%是否
$2,400.6万 成交量 01/07
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%是否
September 158%是否
$66.4万 成交量 01/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$27.4万 成交量 01/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 315%是否
September 30September 305%是否
$2.2万 成交量 01/01
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3125%是否
October 3115%是否
$594.4万 成交量 01/01
WTI原油在___前创历史新高？WTI原油在___前创历史新高？
December 3113%是否
September 302%是否
$270.8万 成交量 01/01
伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？ 伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？
14%
概率
是 否
$2.2万 成交量 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Elon MuskElon Musk12%是否
Giorgia MeloniGiorgia Meloni3%是否
$3.1万 成交量 31/08
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?
September 3010%
December 3154%
$4.7万 成交量 01/01
11月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 11月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
25%
概率
是 否
$37.7万 成交量 30/11
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3152%是否
October 31October 3119%是否
$136.4万 成交量 01/01
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
8%
概率
是 否
$1.8万 成交量 31/12
美伊和平谈判下一轮将在何处进行...?美伊和平谈判下一轮将在何处进行...?
9月30日前没有会议74%是否
瑞士10%是否
$1.8万 成交量 30/09
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%是否
October 3113%是否
$684.6万 成交量 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
September 3094%是否
August 3177%是否
$2.2万 成交量 30/09
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf43%是否
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%是否
$1.7万 成交量 31/12
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3052%是否
August 3115%是否
$90.9万 成交量 01/10
10月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 10月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
16%
概率
是 否
$37.7万 成交量 31/10
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding17%是否
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)11%是否
$68.7万 成交量 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya8%是否
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy5%是否
$2,350.6万 成交量 10/10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3118%是否
October 3111%是否
$1,108.8万 成交量 01/01
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3152%是否
ChinaChina45%是否
$1.5万 成交量 31/12
9月15日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 9月15日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
2%
概率
是 否
$37.7万 成交量 15/09
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3152%是否
September 3010%是否
$38.3万 成交量 01/01
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
15%
概率
是 否
$19万 成交量 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 202757%是否
March 31, 202741%是否
$604.2万 成交量 01/07
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202668%是否
December9%是否
$33.3万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?
August 319%
October 3138%
$13.5万 成交量 01/11
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%是否
September 3093%是否
$35.7万 成交量 01/01
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%是否
CATLCATL20%是否
$18.6万 成交量 30/06
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%是否
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin46%是否
$3.1万 成交量 31/12
Will Iran target a Arab country on...?Will Iran target a Arab country on...?
August 1799%是否
August 3012%是否
$66万 成交量 31/08
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
August 319%
October 3145%
$6.3万 成交量 01/11
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Donald TuskDonald Tusk86%是否
Ursula von der LeyenUrsula von der Leyen70%是否
$35.1万 成交量 31/12
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$10.8万 成交量 01/10
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31December 3135%是否
September 30September 307%是否
$294.5万 成交量 01/01
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%是否
Delcy Rodríguez10%是否
$9,578.8万 成交量 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
87%
概率
是 否
$6,176 成交量 31/12
Netanyahu会在...前下台吗？Netanyahu会在...前下台吗？
December 3149%是否
May 311%是否
$5,963 成交量 01/01
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
August 2550%是否
August 2640%是否
$5,847 成交量 31/08
习近平会在2027年前访问美国吗？习近平会在2027年前访问美国吗？
December 3197%是否
October 3196%是否
$73.8万 成交量 31/12
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 3183%是否
October 3178%是否
$5,510 成交量 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%是否
40+2%是否
$5,283 成交量 31/08
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia85%是否
Druzkhivka52%是否
$5,144 成交量 31/12
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3033%是否
September 1516%是否
$5,048 成交量 30/09
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3152%
$11.4万 成交量 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 2478%是否
August 1776%是否
$2.2万 成交量 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3119%是否
January 31January 311%是否
$732.7万 成交量 01/01
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
概率
是 否
$4,351 成交量 31/12
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
1%
概率
是 否
$5,819 成交量 31/08
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
沙特阿拉伯沙特阿拉伯10%是否
VenezuelaVenezuela10%是否
$4,234 成交量 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 311%
$30.8万 成交量 31/08
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
2%
概率
是 否
$105.7万 成交量 31/12
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$3,966 成交量 01/01
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
<465%是否
420%是否
$4,222 成交量 31/08
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 225%
August 3130%
$3,545 成交量 31/08
以色列将在...之前撤出黎巴嫩...?以色列将在...之前撤出黎巴嫩...?
December 3110%是否
September 302%是否
$840.2万 成交量 01/01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%是否
November 3050%是否
$361.9万 成交量 01/01
Will Russia capture Toretske by...?Will Russia capture Toretske by...?
October 31October 3165%是否
September 30September 3033%是否
$15.3万 成交量 01/11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%是否
September 302%是否
$2,914.9万 成交量 01/01
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-2097%是否
20-402%是否
$3,018 成交量 31/08
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 3078%是否
September 1546%是否
$2,938 成交量 01/10
Will Russia capture Svitle by...?Will Russia capture Svitle by...?
August 319%
October 3140%
$5.7万 成交量 01/11
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 311%
September 302%
$47.7万 成交量 30/09
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
77%
概率
是 否
$4,368 成交量 今日截止
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
7%
概率
是 否
$2,614 成交量 31/12
Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?
15%
概率
是 否
$11.5万 成交量 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202610%
June 30, 202729%
$4.3万 成交量 01/07
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?
December 31December 3185%是否
October 31October 3168%是否
$20.8万 成交量 01/01
Who will Trump speak to in August?Who will Trump speak to in August?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz52%是否
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham48%是否
$2,358 成交量 31/08
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?
September 3014%是否
May 313%是否
$6.8万 成交量 01/10
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%是否
September 307%是否
$2,313 成交量 01/01
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1736%是否
August 2627%是否
$2,456 成交量 31/08
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
September 306%
December 3132%
$17.7万 成交量 01/01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
16%
概率
是 否
$6,300 成交量 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
July 3197%是否
August 3117%是否
$76.3万 成交量 01/09
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