Nahost-Prognosemärkte

Nahost-Prognosemärkte bepreisen die größten Fragen der Region - Waffenruhen, Sanktionen, Atomverhandlungen, Wahlen und Konflikte - als lebendige Wahrscheinlichkeiten, die sich mit jeder Schlagzeile ändern. Polymarkets verfolgt die echten Preise der Märkte zu Israel, Iran, Gaza und Golf und lässt dich im Trainingsmodus risikofrei üben, bevor du auf Polymarket handelst.

80 aktive Märkte
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%JaNein
August 25August 2599%JaNein
$2,5 Mio. Vol 30/09
US-Iran endgültiger Atomdeal bis...?US-Iran endgültiger Atomdeal bis...?
31. Dezember12%JaNein
November 307%JaNein
$16,2 Mio. Vol 01/01
Wird die USA Iran vor 2027 angreifen? Wird die USA Iran vor 2027 angreifen?
17%
Chance
Ja Nein
$84,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Wer wird der nächste Premierminister Israels nach der nächsten Wahl sein?Wer wird der nächste Premierminister Israels nach der nächsten Wahl sein?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%JaNein
Benjamin NetanjahuBenjamin Netanjahu27%JaNein
$33 Mio. Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
September 3039%JaNein
September 1518%JaNein
$40,5 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Fällt das iranische Regime vor 2027? Fällt das iranische Regime vor 2027?
7%
Chance
Ja Nein
$79,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Iranischer Führer Ende 2026?Iranischer Führer Ende 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei82%JaNein
Kein Staatsoberhaupt4%JaNein
$38,8 Mio. Vol 31/12
Stimmt Iran bis 31 Dezember dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu? Stimmt Iran bis 31 Dezember dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu?
14%
Chance
Ja Nein
$22,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
USD x Iranian rials End of August?USD x Iranian rials End of August?
2.0-2.1M46%JaNein
2.1-2.2M34%JaNein
$20,6 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%JaNein
October 3113%JaNein
$6,8 Mio. Vol 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
September 3094%JaNein
August 3177%JaNein
$21,9 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$108 Tsd. Vol 01/10
Netanyahu bis... aus dem Amt?Netanyahu bis... aus dem Amt?
December 3149%JaNein
May 311%JaNein
$6 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3033%JaNein
September 1516%JaNein
$5 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 2478%JaNein
August 1776%JaNein
$21,9 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Saudi-ArabienSaudi-Arabien10%JaNein
VenezuelaVenezuela10%JaNein
$4,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 225%
August 3130%
$3,5 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%JaNein
September 307%JaNein
$2,3 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%JaNein
513%JaNein
$1,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?
↑ 2.0M97%JaNein
↑ 2.1M58%JaNein
$1,6 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 311%
$1 Mio. Vol 01/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,7 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will Iran target Bahrain by...?Will Iran target Bahrain by...?
August 3140%JaNein
September 3035%JaNein
$1,2 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
September 3050%JaNein
September 1520%JaNein
$1,1 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?
September 1551%JaNein
September 3051%JaNein
$957 Vol 30/09
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
21%
Chance
Ja Nein
$30,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%JaNein
June 263%JaNein
$1,6 Mio. Vol 01/09
Will Iran target Syria by...?Will Iran target Syria by...?
September 157%JaNein
September 307%JaNein
$674 Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Iraq by...?Will Iran target Iraq by...?
September 3040%JaNein
September 1534%JaNein
$647 Vol 30/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Stimmt Iran bis 30 September dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu? Stimmt Iran bis 30 September dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu?
4%
Chance
Ja Nein
$22,4 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Kuwait by...?Will Iran target Kuwait by...?
September 3032%JaNein
September 1520%JaNein
$379 Vol 30/09
Will Iran target Qatar by...?Will Iran target Qatar by...?
September 30September 3023%JaNein
September 15September 1511%JaNein
$356 Vol 30/09
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%JaNein
March 311%JaNein
$294 Vol 01/01
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$344,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
8%
Chance
Ja Nein
$160,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
Chance
Ja Nein
$174,3 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%JaNein
August 311%JaNein
$1,7 Mio. Vol 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
Chance
Ja Nein
$146 Vol 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%JaNein
Lebanon9%JaNein
$143 Vol 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
10%
Chance
Ja Nein
$73 Vol 31/12
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
December 31, 202550%JaNein
December 31, 202629%JaNein
$456,4 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%JaNein
December 3150%JaNein
$2,9 Mio. Vol 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%JaNein
August 311%JaNein
$1,2 Mio. Vol
Iran stimmt zu, den angereicherten Uranbestand bis... zu übergeben...?Iran stimmt zu, den angereicherten Uranbestand bis... zu übergeben...?
31. Dezember8%JaNein
31. Oktober3%JaNein
$17,8 Mio. Vol 01/01
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
Chance
Ja Nein
$55 Vol 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20268%JaNein
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%JaNein
$533,3 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%JaNein
May 312%JaNein
$341,6 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$194,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$100,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%JaNein
December 3150%JaNein
$4,1 Mio. Vol 01/01
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%JaNein
August 311%JaNein
$137,3 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%JaNein
July 312%JaNein
$100,7 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$158,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
Chance
Ja Nein
$15 Vol 31/12
Iran Nuke before 2027? Iran Nuke before 2027?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$13 Vol 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 Mio. Vol 01/01
Masoud Pezeshkian bis... aus dem Amt?Masoud Pezeshkian bis... aus dem Amt?
December 3115%JaNein
April 301%JaNein
$865,7 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%JaNein
July 311%JaNein
$11 Vol 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%JaNein
May 312%JaNein
$166,3 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$6 Vol 31/12
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
18%
Chance
Ja Nein
$6 Vol 31/12
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$632,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
4%
Chance
Ja Nein
$111,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%JaNein
June 301%JaNein
$21,8 Mio. Vol 01/01
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
8%
Chance
Ja Nein
$12,4 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 316%
June 301%
$767,4 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 312%JaNein
June 151%JaNein
$185,3 Tsd. Vol 01/01
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
Chance
Ja Nein
$185,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117,8 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
10%
Chance
Ja Nein
$236 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Egypt by...?Will Iran target Egypt by...?
September 304%JaNein
September 152%JaNein
$21,3 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
Chance
Ja Nein
$53,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
93%
Chance
Ja Nein
$167,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Oman by...?Will Iran target Oman by...?
September 306%JaNein
September 154%JaNein
$28 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
7%
Chance
Ja Nein
$32,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%JaNein
December 31, 20268%JaNein
$940,1 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142,2 Tsd. Vol 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 Mio. Vol 01/01
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