This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
August 31
$2.2M Volume
1%
September 15
5%
September 30
$2.2M Volume
8%
October 31
$2K Volume
12%
December 31
$406K Volume
18%
Resolved 7
March 31
$330.3K Volume
No
April 30
$1.7M Volume
No
May 31
$1.3M Volume
No
June 15
$221.1K Volume
No
June 22
$129.3K Volume
No
June 30
$1.2M Volume
No
July 31
$1.4M Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by?
Even the leader is cheap - December 31 trades at 18%, October 31 at 11%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by?
No strong consensus yet: December 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 18%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by market resolve?
Mark 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by?
Traders have put $11.1M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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