This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Past
Analysis & News
Will Iran Play at the World Cup? The Market Says 97% - Despite the War, Pulled Tickets and a Visa Standoff
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 17%, with No at 84%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 17% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Total turnover stands at $84.6K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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