A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Taxes
· referendum
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Analysis & News
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Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Yes is the outsider here at 29%, while No trades at 72%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 29%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026 (71 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Traders have put $3.7M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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