This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 13%, while No trades at 88%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 13% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
$2.1K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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