Birmingham City FC vs. Brentford FC

Brentford's status as a Premier League side facing Championship opposition in the Carabao Cup second round underpins the 52.5% implied probability on their win, bolstered by a 3-0 league victory over Tottenham on August 22 and the integration of summer signings such as Callum Wilson. Birmingham City enter off a 2-2 Championship draw with Bristol City the same day, with no fresh injuries but expected rotation under Chris Davies and Max Bird sidelined by a lower-leg issue. The home venue at St. Andrew's offers Birmingham a platform for an upset, reflected in their 22.5% win probability, while the 26% draw price accounts for the likelihood of a tightly contested tie given Brentford's squad depth and recent form. Sepp van den Berg's absence for the visitors adds a minor defensive note ahead of the August 25 kickoff.