The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pause–Pause–Pause
$466.3K Volume
99%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$14.8K Volume
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$7.3K Volume
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$6.1K Volume
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$8.2K Volume
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$4.9K Volume
1%
Cut–Pause–Pause
$10.8K Volume
1%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$84.6K Volume
1%
Other
$325.6K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
When does the Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) (Resolved) market resolve?
This market is settled. The final outcome was confirmed and paid out under Polymarket's published resolution rules.
How much money is trading on Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) (Resolved)?
Total turnover stands at $5.4K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
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