This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
August 31, 2026
$255.9K Volume
2%
September 15, 2026
$1.7K Volume
19%
September 30, 2026
$259.6K Volume
35%
October 31, 2026
$1.5K Volume
50%
November 30, 2026
$14 Volume
67%
December 31, 2026
$151.6K Volume
71%
Resolved 7
December 31, 2025
$107.9K Volume
No
March 31, 2026
No
June 30, 2026
$220.2K Volume
No
July 31, 2026
$84.2K Volume
No
August 7, 2026
$109.8K Volume
No
August 14, 2026
$171.4K Volume
No
August 21, 2026
$190.4K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for GPT-6 released by?
December 31, 2026 leads the field at 70%, with November 30, 2026 next at 60%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.
What do traders predict for GPT-6 released by?
Traders lean toward December 31, 2026, pricing it at 70%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.
When does the GPT-6 released by market resolve?
The market runs until 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on GPT-6 released by?
Traders have put $1.6M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade GPT-6 released by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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