The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
<20
$18K Volume
5%
20–23
$12.4K Volume
75%
24–27
$10.5K Volume
22%
28–31
$2.2K Volume
2%
32–35
$4.7K Volume
1%
36–39
$1.5K Volume
1%
40+
$1.9K Volume
8%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
The money is on 20–23 at 71%; 24–27 follows at 21%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
The market makes 20–23 the favorite at 71%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the How many Democratic House members not running in 2026 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (6 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
Traders have put $51.2K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade How many Democratic House members not running in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
≤4727%YesNo
4914%YesNo
Shutdown & Democratic Party86%YesNo
Shutdown & Republican Party11%YesNo
786%YesNo
94%YesNo
373%YesNo
425%YesNo



